Coursera DD - deep value & bullish on learning

u/zwaantjuh · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · February 06, 2026 at 10:38 · ⬆ 6 pts · 💬 9 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
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Deep-value bull case on Coursera (COUR) as a cash-rich, FCF-generating learning platform whose all-stock merger with Udemy could produce an unusually low post-merger EV/FCF multiple.

COUR — LONG The author argues Coursera trades at roughly $5.97 with about $1B market cap but $793M cash and no debt, leaving an enterprise value of only ~$200-300M, so downside is largely capped by the cash pile (~$4.80/share) while FCF is already positive at $78M for FY2025 despite GAAP losses driven mainly by non-cash SBC and amortization. He claims the all-stock Udemy merger adds ~$80M estimated standalone FCF plus $115M of management-guided cost synergies within 24 months, implying potentially >$200M pro-forma FCF and a post-merger EV/FCF multiple of 2x-3x if even half the synergies are achieved; AI is framed as a tailwind because employers need trusted, verifiable certification (GenAI enrollments running at 15 per minute). Main stated risks are high SBC dilution (~8%/year, though trending down) and merger integration/culture risk, which he considers mostly a cost-cutting exercise in redundant sales, marketing and G&A. Horizon is tied to the merger closing and 24-month synergy realization, with a longer-term re-rate to a normal multiple.

With the recent SaaS sell-off, everything got hammered. Coursera was already cheap, but now it's trading as if it’s going out of business next week, despite sitting on a fortress balance sheet.

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Comments 9
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u/zwaantjuh Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Cash-backed Coursera long; Udemy merger synergies drive re-rate
The author argues Coursera trades at roughly $5.97 with about $1B market cap but $793M cash and no debt, leaving an enterprise value of only ~$200-300M, so downside is largely capped by the cash pile (~$4.80/share) while FCF is already positive at $78M for FY2025 despite GAAP losses driven mainly by non-cash SBC and amortization. He claims the all-stock Udemy merger adds ~$80M estimated standalone FCF plus $115M of management-guided cost synergies within 24 months, implying potentially >$200M pro-forma FCF and a post-merger EV/FCF multiple of 2x-3x if even half the synergies are achieved; AI is framed as a tailwind because employers need trusted, verifiable certification (GenAI enrollments running at 15 per minute). Main stated risks are high SBC dilution (~8%/year, though trending down) and merger integration/culture risk, which he considers mostly a cost-cutting exercise in redundant sales, marketing and G&A. Horizon is tied to the merger closing and 24-month synergy realization, with a longer-term re-rate to a normal multiple.
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This Reddit post, published February 06, 2026, features u/zwaantjuh discussing COUR. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/zwaantjuh  · Tickers: COUR