u/zwaantjuh

The author argues Coursera trades at roughly $5.97 with about $1B market cap but $793M cash and no debt, leaving an enterprise value of only ~$200-300M, so downside is largely capped by the cash pile (~$4.80/share) while FCF is already positive at $78M for FY2025 despite GAAP losses driven mainly by non-cash SBC and amortization. He claims the all-stock Udemy merger adds ~$80M estimated standalone FCF plus $115M of management-guided cost synergies within 24 months, implying potentially >$200M pro-forma FCF and a post-merger EV/FCF multiple of 2x-3x if even half the synergies are achieved; AI is framed as a tailwind because employers need trusted, verifiable certification (GenAI enrollments running at 15 per minute). Main stated risks are high SBC dilution (~8%/year, though trending down) and merger integration/culture risk, which he considers mostly a cost-cutting exercise in redundant sales, marketing and G&A. Horizon is tied to the merger closing and 24-month synergy realization, with a longer-term re-rate to a normal multiple.

Author argues Heritage Global (HGBL) is undervalued because the market has fully priced in the ~$24.6M Specialty Lending non-accrual loan default, while net cash of ~$19.4M, virtually no corporate debt, and a profitable Industrial Assets auction business protect the downside. The stock trades near 0.65x book with a ~$42M market cap versus author-estimated ~$48.4M intrinsic value under a pessimistic 20% loan recovery, giving a free option if recovery is 50-75% and pushes value toward $60M+. The main stated catalyst is resolution/recovery on the loan and the DebtX acquisition, expected to be immediately accretive in 2026; the author warns it may trade sideways for a year or three and is illiquid/too small for institutions.