Tariffs, taxes and AI power plans dominate outlook after the State of the Union
Speakers
Summary
- Tariffs as Permanent Policy: Henrietta Treyz emphasizes that tariffs are not a temporary bargaining chip but a core, permanent policy preference for Trump, despite 72% opposition from independent voters.
- Income Tax Replacement Unlikely: Replacing income tax with tariffs is constitutionally impossible without Congress, implying a "double taxation" scenario (Income Tax + Tariffs) rather than a swap.
- AI Power Demand Doubling: Marc Anderson notes that AI/Data Centers currently consume ~4% of global electricity, projected to hit 8% by 2035, creating a structural tailwind for power infrastructure.
- Economic Resilience: UBS forecasts strong US GDP growth of 2.5-3% for 2026, supporting a continued bid for equities despite political noise.
Trade Ideas
Anderson states that even with potential adjustments to tariff rates, the policy environment "will keep the bid for gold relatively high" and confirms it is currently held in "all of our client portfolios." Tariffs generally introduce inflationary pressure and geopolitical friction. When combined with the expectation of the Fed cutting rates (lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets), Gold acts as a necessary hedge against policy uncertainty and currency debasement. LONG as a core portfolio hedge against fiscal and trade policy volatility. A sudden strengthening of the USD or higher-than-expected real interest rates.
Marc Anderson
Co-Head of Asset Allocation and CIO at UBS Global Wealth Management
Trump explicitly called for tech companies to build their own power plants. Anderson cites data showing AI electricity consumption doubling from 4% to 8% of global usage by 2035. The "AI Trade" is moving from pure software/chips to the physical constraints of the grid. As hyperscalers demand massive energy, the entire "Power and Resources" value chain (utilities, grid infrastructure, commodities) becomes the critical bottleneck and beneficiary of capex. LONG the "Power and Resources" theme as a second-order derivative of AI growth. Regulatory caps on energy prices or faster-than-expected efficiency gains in AI compute reducing power needs.
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This CNBC video, published February 25, 2026, features Marc Anderson discussing GOLD, BOTZ. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Marc Anderson · Tickers: GOLD, BOTZ