Nvidia Won't Deliver Much Upside, Says Seaport's Goldberg
Speakers
Summary
- Jay Goldberg is the sole analyst with a "Sell" rating on Nvidia, arguing that the company will meet expectations but lacks the ability to deliver significant upside surprise.
- The primary bottleneck is physical capacity at TSMC (manufacturing and packaging), which caps Nvidia's revenue potential until late in the year.
- A structural headwind is emerging in the capital markets; funding the massive data centers required to sustain Nvidia's growth is becoming increasingly difficult ("stress on the capital market side").
- The semiconductor industry is currently at a "historic peak" of capacity constraints (substrates, photoresist, memory), suggesting a cyclical top may be near as shortages eventually ease.
Trade Ideas
"The big problem for Nvidia is what the capacity they can get out of TSMC... I think that sort of caps their upside... We're already sort of starting to see the stress on the capital market side. It's getting harder and harder to fund these data centers." Nvidia's valuation is predicated on massive, continuous earnings beats. If physical supply constraints at TSMC prevent them from shipping more units, they cannot mathematically generate the revenue upside needed to justify the stock price. Furthermore, if the customers (data centers) are facing a credit crunch or funding fatigue, the "infinite demand" narrative will break. Short. The company is physically constrained on the supply side and facing emerging financial constraints on the demand side. TSMC brings CoWoS (packaging) capacity online faster than anticipated; Hyperscalers continue to spend aggressively despite capital market tightness.
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 25, 2026, features Jay Goldberg discussing NVDA. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jay Goldberg · Tickers: NVDA