6 Million Jobs At Risk: The Biggest Threats To Labor Market Warns Economist | Heidi Shierholz

Summary

Heidi Shierholz, president of the Economic Policy Institute and former chief economist at the Department of Labor, argues the US economy is slowing and showing recession-like signals. She expects tariffs to raise consumer prices but not recreate the pandemic inflation spike, warns the reconciliation bill will balloon deficits, and defends BLS data independence. She also says mass deportations would cost millions of jobs, including US-born jobs, and warns immigration restrictions could hurt long-term productivity and growth.

• Heidi Shierholz sees a clear US economic slowdown, with weaker GDP and job growth and rising unemployment.
• She expects broad tariffs to pass through to consumer prices and disrupt supply chains, though not to match the pandemic inflation spike.
• She argues the reconciliation bill's tax cuts and benefit cuts will sharply increase the deficit and may lift inflation and/or interest rates.
• She favors minimum-wage increases, unionization, and low unemployment to support wage growth.
• She defends BLS data independence and attributes large revisions to staffing cuts and a turning labor market.
• She warns mass deportations could cost nearly 6 million jobs, including over 2.5 million US-born jobs, through supply-chain and demand effects.
• She supports comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship and tighter, smarter border control.
• She says immigration restrictions could reduce US long-term talent attraction, productivity, and growth.