Markets Weekly April 11, 2026

Summary

Joseph Wang analyzes the economic and market implications of the ongoing Middle East war and potential peace negotiations. He details how high oil prices are impacting inflation and consumer sentiment, while expressing skepticism about the market's optimistic reaction to peace talks. The discussion covers the complex geopolitical perspectives of the US, Israel, and Iran, and outlines the potential for a global recession if oil flows do not resume.

• War in the Middle East has pushed oil prices above $100, contributing to high headline CPI inflation.
• Core CPI remains moderate, but the Fed's preferred PCE measure is expected around 3%, a concern.
• Consumer sentiment has dropped to multi-decade lows, potentially weakening future consumption.
• European airlines face imminent jet fuel shortages, risking flight cancellations and economic damage to tourism.
• Peace negotiations are underway but are difficult due to historical mistrust and conflicting objectives.
• Markets rallied sharply on news of peace talks, but the speaker cautions this optimism may be premature.
• If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, a deep global recession or depression is a risk.
• Geopolitically, China emerges as a winner, and US-China relations appear to be shifting towards conciliation.