Trump ‘Mulls’ Iran Options, Fed Subpoenaed | The China Show 1/12/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 12, 2026 at 05:09  |  1:34:32  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Jean Chia — Global CIO, Bank of Singapore
Stephen Engle — Chief North Asian Correspondent, Bloomberg
Enda Curran — Senior Economics Reporter, Bloomberg News
Mukesh Sahdev — Founder/CEO, X Analysts (Energy Market Consultancy)
Lency Gu — Head of Business Development, Haisco Pharmaceutical Group
Daisy Ho — Asia and Middle East CEO, HSBC Asset Management
Kurt Tong — Managing Partner, The Asia Group
Ding Yifan — Senior Fellow, Renmin University Institute of Global Governance and Development
David Ingles — Anchor, Bloomberg
Yvonne Man — Head of APAC, CoinDesk

Summary

The show covered a heavy geopolitical and macro news morning: DOJ subpoenas of the Fed and Powell's defense of Fed independence, US-Iran tensions amid protests, and Japan snap-election speculation. Bank of Singapore's CIO outlined overweight positions in Asia, Japan and Hong Kong/China, structural dollar weakness, gold and AI applications, while oil analysts debated Iran supply risk and a possible Canadian crude beneficiary. Other segments covered Haisco's licensing deal, HSBC Asset Management's UAE expansion, China healthcare/biotech, and geopolitical implications of US pressure on Venezuela and Iran.

  • DOJ subpoena of the Fed and Powell's response raised Fed independence concerns and pressured the dollar.
  • Iran unrest and potential US response lifted oil and precious-metals risk premiums, with China seen as the key buyer of Iranian crude.
  • Japan snap-election speculation and yen weakness kept Ministry of Finance intervention risk in focus.
  • Bank of Singapore favored Japan, Asian equities, Hong Kong/China, Singapore/Malaysia, gold, private credit, and Asian/China AI applications, with structural dollar weakness.
  • HSBC Asset Management saw diversification away from US assets, gold demand, alternatives, and improved sentiment toward Chinese and Asian equities; it remains positive on India.
  • Haisco Pharmaceutical highlighted a $1B-plus NewCo licensing deal and partnership-led globalization.
  • Geopolitical discussion focused on US-China influence, Venezuela/Iran, and China-Japan tensions.
Ideas
Jean Chia Global CIO, Bank of Singapore 6:32
Structural US dollar weakness expected.
Expects geopolitical tensions and concerns about Fed independence to feed structural US dollar weakness. A weaker dollar should also support US corporates and Asian risk assets, reinforcing the bearish dollar view.
Jean Chia Global CIO, Bank of Singapore 8:16
Overweight Japan over US equities.
Overweight Japan rather than US equities. Low rates, a weak dollar, corporate restructuring, M&A and consolidation, attractive valuations versus global equities, and capital reallocation to North Asia should support Japanese equities; North Asia also benefits from upstream semiconductor strength.
Jean Chia Global CIO, Bank of Singapore 9:06
Shift AI exposure to Asian applications.
Remain committed to AI but shift exposure from US upstream 0-to-1 development toward Asian and China AI proliferation and applications. Adoption across industries can drive margin expansion, earnings growth, and new beneficiaries such as health tech and renewable energy supporting AI growth.
Jean Chia Global CIO, Bank of Singapore 10:11
Overweight Asian equities structurally.
Overweight Asian equities in a more structural way. Attractive valuations versus global equities, weakening dollar, geopolitical diversification, and capital flows shifting away from excessive US concentration support the region.
Jean Chia Global CIO, Bank of Singapore 10:41
Hold gold as strategic portfolio ballast.
Gold should be a strategic allocation rather than only a tactical trade. It provides portfolio ballast and diversification because it has low correlation to currencies and responds to geopolitical noise; investors should maintain exposure rather than chase high momentum.
Jean Chia Global CIO, Bank of Singapore 13:47
Seek yield in private credit.
Neutral on duration because rate-cut timing is uncertain and consensus cuts are already priced. Bonds still play a total-return role, but high-quality spreads are tight, so investors should seek yield in private credit and Asian equity yield.
Stephen Engle Chief North Asian Correspondent, Bloomberg 18:54
Watch yen intervention risk near 158.
Yen weakness to a one-year low reversed because of dollar weakness, but around 158 the intervention watch is active. Japan's Ministry of Finance is focused on the pace of depreciation rather than a specific level, and intervention speculation should persist until snap-election or lower-house dissolution clarity.
Jean Chia Global CIO, Bank of Singapore 28:24
Stay overweight Hong Kong and China.
Remains overweight Hong Kong/China after initiating the position in Q3 2024. Valuations are attractive, policy direction has shifted toward stable growth, consumer subsidies and affordability support consumption, real estate stabilization would be a catalyst, and AI adoption can broaden earnings beyond tech.
Jean Chia Global CIO, Bank of Singapore 29:34
Overweight Singapore and Malaysia equities.
Continues to open the year overweight Singapore and Malaysia alongside Hong Kong/China, using them as additional overweight exposure within a constructive Asian equity allocation. The rationale is less detailed than for Hong Kong/China but sits within the broader Asia valuation and capital-reallocation view.
Lency Gu Head of Business Development, Haisco Pharmaceutical Group 40:04
Haisco licensing validates innovative pipeline.
Haisco's license collaboration with Air & Access/Nexus validates its China-generated data and innovation. It receives over $100 million upfront, up to $1 billion total plus equity, royalties and sublicense income, and a 19.9% NewCo stake. With 48 programs, about 30 active pipeline assets, and a partnership-led overseas strategy, multiple assets can drive global expansion despite domestic pricing pressure.
Enda Curran Senior Economics Reporter, Bloomberg News 53:35
Dollar risk from Fed independence probe.
The DOJ subpoena and pressure on Powell are a negative-optics political attack on Fed independence. Analysts warn it could trigger capital outflows from the US and a weaker dollar, though the near-term rates path is not immediately changed and prior Sell America narratives faded.
Mukesh Sahdev Founder/CEO, X Analysts (Energy Market Consultancy) 55:04
Watch oil risk premium, capped upside.
Iran is a larger oil risk than Venezuela because its medium-sour crude and petrochemical/feedstock exports are harder to replace, flows to China are large, and Hormuz risk adds premium. But Q1 refinery maintenance and China's high inventories cap flat-price upside, so the key bullish signal is stronger backwardation rather than a large sustained price spike.
Mukesh Sahdev Founder/CEO, X Analysts (Energy Market Consultancy) 58:53
Canada may win from oil reshuffle.
Canada could be a winner from an Iranian-supply disruption to China because China may replace lost Iranian barrels with more Canadian crude. The reshuffling of China's crude-buying portfolio supports Canadian crude demand.
Daisy Ho Asia and Middle East CEO, HSBC Asset Management 66:21
Clients adding alternatives for diversification.
Longer-term clients are adding alternatives to diversify away from traditional assets and add alpha sources. HSBC is investing in alternative capabilities as institutional and wealth demand picks up.
Daisy Ho Asia and Middle East CEO, HSBC Asset Management 66:35
Gold demand amid US diversification.
Clients are diversifying away from US assets and adding precious metals including gold as part of a broader volatility-diversification and hedge strategy for 2026.
Daisy Ho Asia and Middle East CEO, HSBC Asset Management 66:50
Sentiment shifts toward Chinese, Asian equities.
There is a notable shift in sentiment toward Chinese and Asian equities, with clients coming back to China because of structural reform and sector excitement, supporting demand for these markets.
Daisy Ho Asia and Middle East CEO, HSBC Asset Management 68:15
Positive long-term view on India.
HSBC Asset Management has a positive long-term view on India. Acquisitions have built a full local suite of equity, fixed income, multi-asset and liquidity products, and the firm continues to look for opportunities there.
Up Next

This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 12, 2026, features Jean Chia, Stephen Engle, Lency Gu, Enda Curran, Mukesh Sahdev, Daisy Ho discussing USD, EWJ, AI-SECTOR, AAXJ, GLD, BIZD, FXY, FXI, Singapore equities, EWM, 002653.SZ, WTI, Canadian crude oil, Alternatives, GLTR, INDA. 17 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jean Chia, Stephen Engle, Lency Gu, Enda Curran, Mukesh Sahdev, Daisy Ho  · Tickers: USD, EWJ, AI-SECTOR, AAXJ, GLD, BIZD, FXY, FXI, Singapore equities, EWM, 002653.SZ, WTI, Canadian crude oil, Alternatives, GLTR, INDA