Mukesh Sahdev

Oil opened ~$82 (up from ~$73 close) following US/Israel strikes and the death of Khamenei. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has halted ("effective closure") due to safety concerns. While Sahdev argues against $100 oil due to seasonal weakness, the immediate "war premium" is being repriced. The physical disruption of LNG and Oil tankers (down 80% per Kepler data) creates an immediate supply shock fear. Even if the Strait isn't officially closed, the *insurance* blockade creates the same effect as a physical one. LONG. Momentum trade on the "fear premium" of $8-$20 per barrel. Rapid de-escalation or a ceasefire (Iran has signaled willingness to talk); seasonal demand weakness caps upside.

Oil opened ~$82 (up from ~$73 close) following US/Israel strikes and the death of Khamenei. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has halted ("effective closure") due to safety concerns. While Sahdev argues against $100 oil due to seasonal weakness, the immediate "war premium" is being repriced. The physical disruption of LNG and Oil tankers (down 80% per Kepler data) creates an immediate supply shock fear. Even if the Strait isn't officially closed, the *insurance* blockade creates the same effect as a physical one. LONG. Momentum trade on the "fear premium" of $8-$20 per barrel. Rapid de-escalation or a ceasefire (Iran has signaled willingness to talk); seasonal demand weakness caps upside.