Iran War: Israel Says Tehran's Key Official Larijani Killed | The Pulse 3/17
Speakers
Summary
- The Iran war has intensified, with Iran targeting key energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, including the UAE's Shah gas field (20% of UAE gas, 5% of global sulfur) and the Fujairah port, disrupting global energy supply and shipping lanes.
- Oil prices remain elevated (~$103 Brent) as the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to most traffic; only a few Iran-linked vessels are passing through, creating a significant supply blockage.
- Central banks (RBA, Fed, BOE, BOJ) are in focus this week, with markets assessing the conflict's inflationary impact; expectations have shifted hawkish, but most banks are expected to preserve optionality due to growth concerns and uncertainty over the war's duration.
- Cathie Wood (ARK) sees AI driving a massive productivity boom, citing explosive revenue growth at Anthropic and OpenAI, and forecasts nonfarm productivity rising to 4-6%.
- Wood believes the current tech sell-off is similar to April 2023 and represents a buying opportunity, noting inflows into tech ETFs; she sees the SAAS sector as being disrupted and becoming a "value" space.
- Wood highlights Palantir as a major defense tech player, with nearly half its business in defense, and sees smaller unmanned systems companies (drones, C-UAS) as having more leverage than large primes in the current war environment.
- Goldman's Trivedi views the oil shock as a terms-of-trade event: the USD, CAD, BRL, COP are beneficiaries, while EUR and Asian oil-importing EM currencies (INR, KRW) are on the wrong side. He expects a gradual CNY appreciation to continue.
- European leaders (EU, Germany) have explicitly rejected U.S. calls for a military coalition to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, stating "no appetite" to get involved in the war.
- Finnish President Stubb calls for de-escalation and a ceasefire, expressing concern that higher oil prices are funding Russia's war in Ukraine and that the regional conflict could widen.
Trade Ideas
Reports detail Iranian attacks crippling key energy infrastructure (gas fields, ports, refineries) in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, causing supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz is blocked to most traffic, with only ~12 friendly vessels passing vs. a typical 30-50. This represents a severe, ongoing supply shock to global oil and gas markets, keeping prices elevated ($103+ Brent) and creating high uncertainty, directly benefiting upstream energy producers while the disruption persists. The sector is central to the conflict's market impact. The direction is WATCH due to high volatility and dependence on unpredictable geopolitical developments, not a stable fundamental LONG. Rapid de-escalation and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; coordinated global strategic reserve releases.
Wood states Palantir is one of ARK's largest holdings, with nearly half its business in defense, and calls it "a very big force in this war" and "probably the most important defense tech play out there." The ongoing war in the Middle East is a "new kind of war" involving AI and new technologies, creating urgent demand for advanced defense tech solutions where Palantir is a leader. Direct bullish view based on the company's strategic positioning in a high-demand, catalyzed sector. De-escalation of the conflict reducing defense spending urgency; execution risk.
Wood discusses the AI-driven productivity boom and exploding revenue at frontier AI model providers (Anthropic, OpenAI), and explicitly references NVIDIA's CEO forecasting $1 trillion in sales through 2027. She directly links this explosive AI growth to the need for underlying infrastructure, stating that incremental tech growth is moving towards "infrastructure, so data centers and chips." Strongly infers continued demand for NVIDIA's chips as the foundational infrastructure for the AI revolution she describes. AI adoption slowdown; competitive pressures; geopolitical supply chain disruption.
Wood states that investors are using the market setback to buy technology-oriented themes, noting inflows into ARK's ETFs, and draws a parallel to April 2023, calling it a "bull market" climbing a "wall of worry." She believes the market is discounting a temporary geopolitical shock and that the long-term productivity and growth story for technology, particularly AI, remains intact and compelling. Implied bullish view on the technology sector as a whole, presenting a near-term buying opportunity amidst conflict-driven volatility. Protracted war causing a sustained risk-off environment and higher rates that pressure tech valuations.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published March 17, 2026, features Joumanna Bercetche, Cathie Wood discussing XLE, PLTR, NVDA, XLK. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Joumanna Bercetche, Cathie Wood · Tickers: XLE, PLTR, NVDA, XLK