Dollar Falls Amid Trade Uncertainty; NYC Disrupted Due to Blizzard | Bloomberg Brief 2/23/2026
Speakers
Summary
- Macro Chaos: Markets are reacting to a chaotic geopolitical and legal landscape in 2026. The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's global tariffs, leading to a "Plan B" from the administration that has spooked the EU into freezing trade deal ratifications.
- Geopolitics: A nuclear standoff with Iran is pending Geneva talks; failure could lead to strikes. Meanwhile, a massive blizzard has paralyzed the US Northeast.
- Private Markets Stress: A significant crack has appeared in Private Credit/Equity. Blue Owl shut down a fund due to redemptions, and the industry is sitting on $3.8T in unsold assets with declining returns.
- Pharma Divergence: A major shift in the weight-loss sector as Novo Nordisk's drug data disappoints, handing market share dominance to Eli Lilly.
Trade Ideas
"Eli Lilly is doing quite well... up 4% versus Novo that is down over 10%." Novo Nordisk's developing weight-loss drug fell short against Eli Lilly's rival product in head-to-head comparisons. In a duopoly market (GLP-1s), a clinical failure by one player is a direct, immediate market share gain for the other. Investors are repricing the future cash flows of the weight-loss dominance to Lilly. Long LLY / Short NVO (Pair Trade). Regulatory intervention on drug pricing or unexpected safety data from Lilly.
V.F. Corp (Vans/Timberland) is down 3.5% in premarket. The stock had rallied previously but reversed on "tariff announcements by President Donald Trump over the weekend." Despite the Supreme Court ruling against tariffs, the Administration's aggressive "Plan B" and the EU's subsequent freezing of trade deals reintroduce high costs for importers. Apparel companies with global supply chains are the immediate victims of this renewed uncertainty. Short VFC. The "Plan B" tariffs face immediate legal injunctions, causing a relief rally in importers.
Blue Owl "shut the gates on a private credit fund that had been seeing redemptions" and sold assets to distribute cash. This is described as the "poster child" of broader jitters. Private Credit is facing a liquidity mismatch. Retail investors want out (redemptions), but the assets are illiquid. If Blue Owl is forced to sell assets at par (or below) to meet redemptions, it signals systemic stress and potential NAV markdowns across the sector. Avoid / Short OWL. Management successfully stabilizes the fund or interest rate cuts alleviate pressure on the underlying borrowers.
"Uncertainty means deferral of decisions... and that tends to favor bonds... over risk assets." The removal of tariffs is theoretically disinflationary, but the current chaos increases uncertainty. The combination of trade wars (EU freezing deals), kinetic war risks (Iran), and legal chaos (SCOTUS vs. Trump) creates a textbook "Flight to Quality." Investors will park capital in Treasuries and Gold while waiting for clarity. Long XAU (Gold) and TLT (Treasuries). A sudden diplomatic breakthrough with Iran or a quick resolution to the trade spat would trigger a "risk-on" rotation out of safety.
Abeer Abu Omar
Reporter, Bloomberg London
Honeywell is acquiring a unit of Johnson Matthey, but cut the valuation from $2.4 billion to $1.8 billion. JMAT shares are down ~16-17%. A drastic price cut in an M&A deal signals deteriorating fundamentals in the target asset or a lack of leverage for the seller. The market is repricing JMAT based on this lower realized asset value. Short JMAT.L. Another bidder emerges or the deal is renegotiated higher (unlikely given the trend).
Vonnie Quinn
Anchor, Bloomberg
"Natural gas higher today on this snowstorm that is affecting the East Coast." A massive blizzard (41 million people affected, travel bans) increases immediate demand for heating. This is a classic weather-driven demand spike. Long NATGAS. The storm passes quickly and temperatures normalize, causing the premium to evaporate.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 23, 2026, features Abeer Abu Omar, Silas Brown, Stephen Major, Vonnie Quinn discussing LLY, VFC, OWL, TLT, GOLD, JMAT.L, UNG. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Abeer Abu Omar, Silas Brown, Stephen Major, Vonnie Quinn · Tickers: LLY, VFC, OWL, TLT, GOLD, JMAT.L, UNG