Trump Threatens Europe, Global Stocks Sell Off | The Opening Trade 1/19/2025

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 19, 2026 at 13:24  |  1:35:39  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Kamakshya Trivedi — Head of Global FX and Interest Rates, Goldman Sachs
Jon Turek — Founder, Turek Capital
Mohammed Alardhi — Executive Chairman, Investcorp
Skyler Montgomery Koning — Macro Strategist
Anna Edwards — Anchor, Bloomberg TV (London)
Tom Mackenzie — Anchor, Bloomberg
Jennifer Curry — Reporter, Bloomberg
Mario Centeno — Candidate for ECB Vice President; Former Governor, Bank of Portugal
Leslie Vinjamuri — President & CEO at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Jerry Doyle — Global Defense Editor, Bloomberg
Maria — Europe Leader, Economy, Strategy and Finance Center, The Conference Board

Summary

European stocks and U.S. futures fell while gold and silver rallied after President Trump threatened tariffs on eight European allies over Greenland. The dollar weakened, the euro and Swiss franc gained, and European defense stocks rose while exporters such as autos and luxury were under pressure. Guests debated Europe's response, Davos themes, China data, and emerging-market opportunities, with the ECB and Fed outlook in focus.

  • Trump threatens 10% tariffs on eight European allies over Greenland, rising to 25% in June.
  • European equities and U.S. futures sold off; gold, silver, and the Swiss franc drew haven demand.
  • The dollar weakened initially; strategists debated whether euro strength would last.
  • European defense names rallied while autos and luxury exporters fell.
  • The EU considers retaliation on about €93 billion of U.S. goods and the anti-coercion instrument.
  • Davos begins amid uncertainty; Trump's speech and central bank meetings are in focus.
  • China's 2025 GDP grew 5%, with deflation and real estate still challenges.
  • Emerging-market opportunities were highlighted in China/North Asia, India, South Africa, Brazil, and the Gulf.
Ideas
Kamakshya Trivedi Head of Global FX and Interest Rates, Goldman Sachs 17:33
Dollar overvalued; disruptive U.S. policy weakens it.
The dollar is about 15% overvalued, disruptive U.S. policy and concerns about U.S. assets create a gravitational pull toward a weaker dollar, and the dollar should weaken through the week.
USD HIGH
Kamakshya Trivedi Head of Global FX and Interest Rates, Goldman Sachs 18:51
Swiss franc is preferred tariff safe haven.
The Swiss franc is the safe haven of choice in tariff negotiations, is exempt from tariffs, is correlated with gold, and should be the primary beneficiary with a weaker dollar backdrop; EUR/CHF should go back to lows.
CHF HIGH
Kamakshya Trivedi Head of Global FX and Interest Rates, Goldman Sachs 21:43
China, Korea, Taiwan benefit from diversification.
China and North Asia, including Korea and Taiwan, are primary beneficiaries of the tech trade and a weaker dollar, and are attractive diversification destinations for marginal dollar reinvestment.
FXI EWY EWT MED
Kamakshya Trivedi Head of Global FX and Interest Rates, Goldman Sachs 22:21
India set for earnings, sentiment pickup.
India is a domestic story that has been flagging but is expected to see an earnings pickup and a positive sentiment shift.
INDA MED
Kamakshya Trivedi Head of Global FX and Interest Rates, Goldman Sachs 22:27
South Africa is strong EM story.
South Africa is a great emerging-market story with one of the best physical improvements, and investors like both its bonds and equities.
EZA MED
Kamakshya Trivedi Head of Global FX and Interest Rates, Goldman Sachs 22:36
Brazil offers big rate-cutting cycle.
Brazil is one of the few countries with a big rate-cutting cycle this year, with 15% rates and 5% inflation supporting local assets.
EWZ MED
Mohammed Alardhi Executive Chairman, Investcorp 38:54
Gulf offers compelling long-term investment market.
The Gulf is a long-term compelling investment market with clear policies, strong sovereign balance sheets, capital, and a huge economic transformation agenda; the focus is on companies/private equity and infrastructure.
GCC equities GCC private equity GCC infrastructure HIGH
Jon Turek Founder, Turek Capital 58:36
Tariff tensions make dollar softer.
Foreign investors are heavily long U.S. assets, and tariff/geopolitical tensions should prompt more FX hedging or selling, making the dollar trade softer on these headlines.
USD MED
Jon Turek Founder, Turek Capital 59:21
European crisis headlines can drive reforms.
Negative European headlines can paradoxically catalyze needed structural reforms such as capital markets union and continental integration, so it is not too early to invest along a more unified Europe.
VGK MED
Skyler Montgomery Koning Macro Strategist 93:26
Defense outperforms autos on tariffs.
Tariff shock is hitting growth and autos hardest, while defense is outperforming on geopolitical risk.
European Defense MED
Skyler Montgomery Koning Macro Strategist 93:26
Defense outperforms autos on tariffs.
Tariff shock is hitting growth and autos hardest, while defense is outperforming on geopolitical risk.
European autos MED
Skyler Montgomery Koning Macro Strategist 93:32
UK equities outperform on miners, gold.
UK equities are outperforming continental Europe because the market has more miners and gold exposure, making it less vulnerable to tariff risk and more leveraged to haven demand.
EWU MED
Skyler Montgomery Koning Macro Strategist 94:05
Use commodities to hedge tariff risk.
Higher tariffs are negative for growth, and commodities are the direct feedthrough channel, so she wants to hedge in commodities.
DBC MED
Skyler Montgomery Koning Macro Strategist 94:42
Euro strength will not sustain.
Euro strength should not sustain because the U.S. has more bargaining power in this U.S.-Europe tariff conflict and export-reliant countries may absorb higher tariffs.
FXE MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 19, 2026, features Kamakshya Trivedi, Mohammed Alardhi, Jon Turek, Skyler Montgomery Koning discussing USD, CHF, FXI, EWY, EWT, INDA, EZA, EWZ, GCC equities, GCC private equity, GCC infrastructure, VGK, European Defense, European autos, EWU, DBC, FXE. 14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Kamakshya Trivedi, Mohammed Alardhi, Jon Turek, Skyler Montgomery Koning  · Tickers: USD, CHF, FXI, EWY, EWT, INDA, EZA, EWZ, GCC equities, GCC private equity, GCC infrastructure, VGK, European Defense, European autos, EWU, DBC, FXE