CNBC's 'Halftime Report' Investment Committee detail their 2026 market outlook

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 05, 2026 at 18:44  |  7:59  |  CNBC
Speakers
Jim Lebenthal — Partner, Cetera Investment Management
Joe Terranova — Senior Managing Director, Virtus Investment Partners
Josh Brown — CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Steve Weiss — Chief Investment Officer, Short Hills Capital Partners
Scott Wapner — Host, CNBC

Summary

CNBC's Halftime Report investment committee discussed the 2026 market outlook, focusing on a broadening market that could benefit equal-weight exposure while semiconductors continue to lead over software. Panelists debated the AI disruption risk to software names, Microsoft's stalled performance, and specific trades in Twilio, Salesforce, ExxonMobil, and TTEC. The conversation highlighted persistent divergence between semis and software, with cautious views on AI-disrupted business models.

  • Panelists see a market broadening beyond mega-cap tech, benefiting equal-weight strategies.
  • Semiconductors are described as the main driver of Nasdaq strength.
  • AI-displacing-software overhang remains a key risk for software stocks.
  • Microsoft is viewed as dead money that may become a slow-growth utility.
  • Josh Brown sold Twilio after a failed mean-reversion trade and is watching Salesforce.
  • Jim Lebenthal highlights ExxonMobil's long-term outperformance while Steve Weiss warns on AI disruption in call centers like TTEC.
  • The committee debates whether software can mean-revert against semis in 2026.
Ideas
Jim Lebenthal Partner, Cetera Investment Management 0:01
ExxonMobil outperforms S&P over decades
ExxonMobil has returned 250% over the last 25 years versus 98% for the S&P 500, and the opportunity in energy is right in front of investors.
XOM MED
Joe Terranova Senior Managing Director, Virtus Investment Partners 0:49
Equal weight benefits from market broadening
The market is pivoting toward a broadening-out narrative that benefits equal-weight exposure, with capital coming back into the market at the turn of the calendar; this does not have to come at the expense of NVIDIA, Amazon, or the Mag 7.
RSP JOET HIGH
Joe Terranova Senior Managing Director, Virtus Investment Partners 1:42
Semiconductors power Nasdaq higher
Semiconductors have been the story in technology and are powering the Nasdaq higher, despite his earlier expectation of mean reversion toward software; the semis-versus-software divergence remains dramatic.
SMH MED
Josh Brown CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management 3:31
AI overhang weighs on software
The AI-displacing-software overhang is likely to persist because there is no finality to the argument and software valuations have not become cheap enough to ignore the risk, making the group unattractive for now.
IGV MED
Josh Brown CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management 3:57
Microsoft may be dead money
Microsoft has been dead money since July and hasn't bounced with the rest of the market; it risks becoming a slow-growth utility that keeps a premium valuation but fails to outperform, so he is cautious despite still holding a significant position.
MSFT HIGH
Josh Brown CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management 5:22
Sold Twilio as mean reversion failed
He sold out of Twilio after buying it on December 3 at 131 as a mean-reversion trade between software and semis, because software has struggled to gain momentum and close the gap; he is now on the sidelines.
TWLO MED
Josh Brown CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management 6:18
Watch Salesforce for relative outperformance
Salesforce is the one software name he is watching because it has shown a degree of outperformance versus software peers over the past month, and something may be building that could justify returning to a position.
CRM MED
Steve Weiss Chief Investment Officer, Short Hills Capital Partners 6:37
AI disruption crushes call centers
The call-center company TTEC is a cautionary example of AI disruption: call centers are becoming unnecessary as AI handles tasks internally, competition is rising, and the stock is down 95% from levels where he once owned it.
TTEC MED
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This CNBC video, published January 05, 2026, features Jim Lebenthal, Joe Terranova, Josh Brown, Steve Weiss discussing XOM, RSP, JOET, SMH, IGV, MSFT, TWLO, CRM, TTEC. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jim Lebenthal, Joe Terranova, Josh Brown, Steve Weiss  · Tickers: XOM, RSP, JOET, SMH, IGV, MSFT, TWLO, CRM, TTEC