New Year, New Geopolitical Shockwaves | Macro Mondays: January 05, 2026

Summary

Macro Mondays returns for 2026 with Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold unpacking the market implications of Venezuela's regime change, U.S. foreign policy momentum, and the oil supply outlook. The discussion frames the Venezuela oil shock as muted near term but a multi-year capex story for heavy-crude refiners, while highlighting Greenland mining/rare earths as a cleaner geopolitical investment angle. The macro segment focuses on U.S.-China decoupling, gold and Bitcoin as preferred hedges over silver, and a disinflationary backdrop that could bring Fed cuts, stronger small caps, bank liquidity support from SLR, and a 2026 manufacturing capex window.

• Venezuela regime change seen as near-term non-event for oil, but with long-term supply and capex implications.
• U.S. refiners with heavy-crude expertise could benefit from Venezuela reconstruction over years.
• Greenland mining and rare earths framed as a clearer geopolitical investment theme.
• U.S.-China decoupling called confirmed and hard to reverse; gold, Bitcoin, and rare earths favored.
• Silver flagged as risky due crowded longs and CME margin hikes.
• Disinflation and expected Fed cuts support small caps, banks via SLR, and a weaker dollar.
• Big Beautiful Bill capex window and accelerating chip exports support manufacturing and semiconductors.
• Speakers downplay trading on Taiwan or other geopolitical escalation scenarios.