Name: The Trump Tariff Dump
Uploaded: 2025-04-03T16:15:36+00:00
Duration: 2661 s

Speakers

Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management

Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol

Summary

Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg react to Trump's shock tariffs and the global market sell-off, debating whether the policy is a managed recession that can be unwound or a genuine consumption shock. They discuss recession odds, tax cuts, policy support, and whether investors should buy the dip or set tactical shorts. They lay out crypto and equity trades: buying Bitcoin at lower levels, shorting Ethereum and altcoins, a long RWA basket, long gold, and tactical S&P and Bitcoin shorts.

Trump's tariff announcement spooked markets and raised recession and consumption concerns.
Avi and Jonah debate whether the sell-off is a buying opportunity or requires defensive positioning.
Avi favors buying Bitcoin below $80k, shorting Ethereum and altcoins, and holding gold and an RWA basket.
Jonah sees a possible BTC flush-bottom but also outlines tactical shorts in Bitcoin and S&P 500 to 5,000.
Both discuss tax cuts, policy stimulus, VIX, and the second derivative of bad news as key swing factors.
Jonah highlights shorting Whiff as a death-spiral trade.
The hosts expect tariff fears to be front-loaded, with Monday potentially marking a flush or reversal.

Ideas

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 0:19

Short Ethereum toward 1500 or lower.

Avi says Ethereum is cursed and can be shorted now for a move to $1,500 or lower, even toward triple digits or zero. He argues alts have no buyers until Bitcoin reclaims $90k and ETH can fall to $1,500 even if BTC only sells off to $77k.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 3:25

Buy Bitcoin below 80, especially 78.

Avi says BTC below $80k is a good midterm buy and that he is a buyer at $78k, not at $83k. He thinks the market is closer to the end of the sell-off and that Bitcoin is holding up relatively well despite the broader risk-off move.

Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 3:45

Buy Bitcoin; flush may mark bottom.

Jonah thinks this may be the flush that marks the bottom and says it is what you buy. He has been recommending Bitcoin but not other alts, notes BTC is showing relative strength at $83k, and says a flush to $75k would be crazy not to buy.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 8:33

Short altcoins; no buyers until BTC 90.

Avi says inverse alt season is strong: alts are bleeding, can bounce, but are straight-line lower until Bitcoin gets back above $90k and VIX falls. Later he says one can short altcoins with confidence because many are going to zero, with his RWA basket as the exception.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 8:51

Long Pendle, Plume, Curve versus ETH.

Avi has an RWA basket in Pendle, Plume, and Curve and is waiting for good levels to add. He expects these tokens to gain traction over the next year because of coming regulatory clarity and wants to add them against ETH.

Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 33:59

Short S&P to 5,000, then rally.

Jonah says with S&P 500 you are betting on a one-touch of 5,000 and can get out. He expects tariff fears to be front-loaded, a negative weekend move, a flush on Monday, and then a rally straight up once the bad news is exhausted.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 36:26

Buy S&P 500 at 5,000 gift.

Avi says SPX touching 5,000 would be a gift, because what matters is the second derivative of news and most bad news is already priced in. He has a bullish bent, arguing the sell-off is tolerable and policy makers will underwrite risk if things get bad.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 39:53

Own gold as one-way insurance.

Avi says gold has been a one-way train, is at $3,200, and he is glad he owns a ton of physical gold. He views it as a safe asset you never know when you will need, and says it is better than holding Fartcoin right now.

Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 42:39

Short Whiff death spiral.

Jonah calls Whiff his favorite short bellwether, says it is down 12% and is the smoothest death spiral he has seen. He shorted it at $120, covered around $1, and has reset the short because it keeps falling.

The Trump Tariff Dump

Summary

Ideas

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