Ideas
Mandy Xu
Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence, Cboe Global Markets
2:44
AI theme risk lifts tech volatility
Single-stock volatility in mega-cap tech is near record highs relative to index volatility as investors question the sustainability of the AI theme; if AI leadership falters, rotation and more volatility in tech names are likely.
Mandy Xu
Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence, Cboe Global Markets
4:40
Small-cap rotation on retail call buying
Retail investors are showing 90th-percentile call buying in small caps and international investors are looking to diversify away from concentrated mega-cap AI exposure; Cboe is expanding Russell 2000 options trading hours to facilitate that demand, making small-cap rotation a theme to monitor.
Private markets offer illiquidity premium
Financial advisors and wealth clients remain underweight private markets versus a 10-20% allocation; private equity, private credit and real assets offer an illiquidity/complexity premium, and BlackRock's new SMA with Partners Group simplifies diversified access.
Copper and aluminum in shortage
Copper is in an unprecedented shortage of roughly 300,000-800,000 tons after high-profile supply interruptions, and no producer can quickly make up the lost supply; aluminum is also seeing unusual supply tightness with strong demand, supporting both metals.
Higher metal prices boost miners
In the short term, higher copper and base-metal prices flow almost directly to miners' bottom lines because there is no corresponding increase in mining costs; medium-term substitution risk is the main caveat.
US steel supported by tariffs
U.S. steel is different from other metals because Section 232 tariffs are likely to stay, domestic supply is responding, and the U.S. could become self-sufficient; this gives steel prices and producers stickier support than the market expects.
GLP-1 demand expands via oral pills
Demand for oral GLP-1s is exceeding expectations because the pill format is more approachable, more affordable and equally effective, making it market-expanding rather than cannibalistic; Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are competing and integrating directly with Ro.
Fixed income attractive at current real rates
The Fed is at the higher end of neutral and another cut is likely later this year, but rapid cuts are not justified by stabilizing jobs and productivity; attractive real rates make fixed income a good place to invest at the start of the year.
Google gains as AI winner
The market is sorting AI winners and losers, and OpenAI-exposed names have moderated while Google/Gemini have done better as Anthropic and Google appear in better shape.
NVIDIA is AI chip single source
NVIDIA is effectively a single-source provider of the chips needed for the AI buildout and is a winner as long as the AI narrative remains in place; if AI cools it would be affected, but valuations have moderated.
Big Tech earnings offset multiple compression
Big Tech valuations have moderated 10-15% over the past year even as earnings remain strong; as long as earnings growth exceeds multiple compression, the group can still post positive returns, as it did last year.
SanDisk pricing power extends memory cycle
SanDisk is in an unprecedented memory upcycle with severe shortages, pricing power, and gross margins breaking historic highs; capacity cannot be added quickly, so numbers should go higher next quarter and the cycle should persist, supporting a $600 price target.
HDD contract resets lift pricing
Hard-drive names like Western Digital and Seagate have not had the same pricing power because of long-term supply agreements, but as those contracts reset over the next two to four quarters to tighter terms, they should begin to see pricing gains.
AI storage demand outpaces supply
AI and general compute storage demand is growing faster than memory/storage supply, and new fabs take years to come online, creating an industrywide bottleneck that supports the memory and storage complex.
Enterprise AI adoption drives productivity
AI applications can dramatically improve enterprise productivity and accuracy; a survey of 8,000 CXOs shows 42% have deployed AI agents in production, with early adoption in IT/code creation and manufacturing procurement, making enterprise AI a large investment area.
Apple AI execution is key
Apple's AI strategy remains an overhang: the replacement cycle stopped lengthening, the Google/Gemini deal could help if executed well, but failure to deliver agentic AI risks long-term market share.
Google benefits from regulatory clear sailing
Despite being labeled a monopolist, Google faces no effective government constraints and is tightening its relationship with Apple; this creates clear sailing for Google to leverage its monopolistic strength.
Siri Gemini integration makes Apple attractive
Apple is in a good position because Siri is getting a Gemini brain transplant, Apple can build client-side LLMs with privacy, and its huge 500 million-1 billion user base can be upgraded via OS updates, enabling new do-engine/e-commerce use cases.
Google distribution protects search revenue
Google already has the user base and distribution channels that OpenAI lacks; search revenues have not declined, and Apple's $20 billion search-default plus $1 billion Gemini deal show Google is monetizing AI integration.
Apple record quarter provides runway
Apple's quarter was a breakthrough with record iPhone sales, $143 billion-plus revenue and $25 billion in Greater China; the strong results buy management air cover to fix the AI strategy, and the runway is positive.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 29, 2026,
features Mandy Xu, Jon Diorio, Timna Tanners, Zach Reitano, Jerome Schneider, Venu Krishna, Matt Bryson, Cheryl Cheng, Walter Piecyk, Dag Kittlaus, Mark Gurman
discussing Mega-Cap Tech, IWM, Private markets, PSP, BIZD, XLRE, COPPER, Aluminum, COPX, U.S. Steel, NVO, LLY, TLT, GOOG, NVDA, XLK, SNDK, WDC, STX, Memory/storage semiconductors, AI-SECTOR, AAPL.
20 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Mandy Xu,
Jon Diorio,
Timna Tanners,
Zach Reitano,
Jerome Schneider,
Venu Krishna,
Matt Bryson,
Cheryl Cheng,
Walter Piecyk,
Dag Kittlaus,
Mark Gurman
· Tickers:
Mega-Cap Tech,
IWM,
Private markets,
PSP,
BIZD,
XLRE,
COPPER,
Aluminum,
COPX,
U.S. Steel,
NVO,
LLY,
TLT,
GOOG,
NVDA,
XLK,
SNDK,
WDC,
STX,
Memory/storage semiconductors,
AI-SECTOR,
AAPL
