Dag Kittlaus

Google search remains resilient despite fears that advanced AI would erode search revenues; the feared decline has not happened. Google has an existing user base and channel, allowing it to keep investing through the AI transition, unlike OpenAI, which lacks a built-in distribution channel and real revenues.

Apple is in a surprisingly strong AI position despite past Siri execution missteps. The Gemini partnership gives Siri a much-needed state-of-the-art brain transplant and removes the intelligence bottleneck; Apple can focus on client-side LLMs and privacy, leverage a massive Siri distribution channel of 500 million to 1 billion monthly users that requires no app download, and extend into commerce/action-oriented agents. It also benefits from Google's $20 billion annual search-default payment while paying only about $1 billion a year for frontier model access, leaving it favorably positioned even if it was behind technically.