Matt Bryson

Speaker stated memory is a supply-driven business with long fab lead times; new supply won't arrive until 2025 or 2028 for Samsung and Micron to catch up. Companies have set HBM purchase orders through 2027, indicating secure demand. Tight supply coupled with sustained demand from AI and other applications will keep memory markets tight, supporting prices and sales for memory makers. Positive outlook with continued growth potential suggests LONG direction for key memory producers Micron and Samsung. Demand could weaken if new capacity outpaces growth or if AI expansion slows unexpectedly.

Seagate is benefiting from unprecedented pricing leverage due to AI-driven storage demand, with supply tightness allowing gross margins and earnings to reach historic highs. The company's strong earnings beat and better-than-expected guidance confirm this trend, and the scarcity of storage gives Seagate pricing power that it has never historically had. As long as AI demand continues, Seagate should see further upside.

Western Digital and NAND companies are also likely to benefit from the same pricing leverage and supply tightness in storage. If Seagate is raising prices due to scarcity, Western Digital will follow suit, and the broader shift to NAND as an alternative further supports them. This is a top idea alongside Seagate.

Speaker stated memory is a supply-driven business with long fab lead times; new supply won't arrive until 2025 or 2028 for Samsung and Micron to catch up. Companies have set HBM purchase orders through 2027, indicating secure demand. Tight supply coupled with sustained demand from AI and other applications will keep memory markets tight, supporting prices and sales for memory makers. Positive outlook with continued growth potential suggests LONG direction for key memory producers Micron and Samsung. Demand could weaken if new capacity outpaces growth or if AI expansion slows unexpectedly.

NVDA reported $68B in revenue (beating estimates), 75% gross margins, and confirmed demand for H200 chips is outstripping supply. Despite fears of a "bubble" or digestion period, the hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Google) are explicitly increasing Capex. NVDA remains the "only game in town" for the necessary hardware, and the licensing grant for China removes a lingering regulatory overhang. Long NVDA as the primary beneficiary of the confirmed Capex super-cycle. Supply chain constraints (CoWoS packaging, HBM memory) limiting ability to fulfill orders.