Matt Bryson 2.7 4 ideas

The speaker stated, "I think we still have some room to go." He explained that memory is a supply-driven business and that new supply won't come online until 2027-2028, while demand (especially for HBM) is locked in with customer orders already placed for 2027. Micron's stellar earnings and guidance confirm an extreme supply/demand imbalance. The structural AI-driven demand cycle is expected to last for years, and competitors cannot ramp supply quickly enough to meet it. LONG due to a persistent, multi-year favorable supply/demand dynamic that should support elevated pricing, revenues, and margins for Micron. A faster-than-expected resolution to the chip manufacturing capacity crunch or a sudden collapse in AI-related demand.

Speaker stated memory is a supply-driven business with long fab lead times; new supply won't arrive until 2025 or 2028 for Samsung and Micron to catch up. Companies have set HBM purchase orders through 2027, indicating secure demand. Tight supply coupled with sustained demand from AI and other applications will keep memory markets tight, supporting prices and sales for memory makers. Positive outlook with continued growth potential suggests LONG direction for key memory producers Micron and Samsung. Demand could weaken if new capacity outpaces growth or if AI expansion slows unexpectedly.

NVDA reported $68B in revenue (beating estimates), 75% gross margins, and confirmed demand for H200 chips is outstripping supply. Despite fears of a "bubble" or digestion period, the hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Google) are explicitly increasing Capex. NVDA remains the "only game in town" for the necessary hardware, and the licensing grant for China removes a lingering regulatory overhang. Long NVDA as the primary beneficiary of the confirmed Capex super-cycle. Supply chain constraints (CoWoS packaging, HBM memory) limiting ability to fulfill orders.