Iran Threatens New Targets as US Aims to Tame Oil Prices | Open Interest 3/12/2026
Speakers
Summary
- The Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to escalating conflict with Iran, pushing Brent crude near $100/barrel and threatening global supply chains, particularly for energy and fertilizers.
- Retail private credit funds (Morgan Stanley, Cliffwater) are capping redemptions at 5-7% due to a surge in withdrawal requests, sparking fears of a liquidity mismatch and a potential 2008-style credit event, particularly in software-backed loans.
- The U.S. government is rapidly accelerating its AI infrastructure build-out, reducing supercomputer deployment timelines from a decade to just two years to maintain national security.
- The U.S. administration is suspending the Jones Act to allow foreign-flagged vessels to transport oil between U.S. ports in an effort to tame rising domestic energy costs.
Trade Ideas
"The Strait of Hormuz is not just a chokepoint for energy, approximately one third of global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait. Fertilizer distributor Mosaic with the top-performing stock in the S&P 500 yesterday." The closure of the Strait of Hormuz severely restricts the global supply of fertilizers. This supply shock drives up nitrogen and potash prices to record highs, which directly expands profit margins for North American fertilizer producers who are insulated from the Middle East conflict. LONG. Geopolitical supply chain disruptions provide a massive pricing tailwind for domestic agriculture input providers. A sudden ceasefire or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would cause a rapid deflation of the geopolitical premium priced into fertilizer stocks.
"Bumble is surging after lifting its earnings outlook and announcing a new AI bot to help women find love... JP Morgan upgrades the dating site Bumble after reporting better-than-expected earnings." Strong earnings combined with the integration of new AI matchmaking features are stabilizing the platform's user base and improving monetization. This technological pivot is successfully shifting Wall Street sentiment and driving analyst upgrades. LONG. AI integration is acting as a tangible catalyst to revitalize user engagement and revenue growth in the dating app sector. The AI features may fail to drive long-term user retention, or macroeconomic pressures could cause consumers to cut back on premium dating app subscriptions.
"Hims on track for its best week on record after it announced a deal with Novo Nordisk and adds another 4.75 percent." Securing a direct partnership with Novo Nordisk gives Hims & Hers reliable access to the booming GLP-1 weight-loss drug market. This eliminates supply chain uncertainties and significantly expands their total addressable market and recurring revenue potential. LONG. Partnering with a premier pharmaceutical giant validates the telehealth platform and provides a massive growth engine via weight-loss therapeutics. Regulatory crackdowns on telehealth prescriptions or supply shortages from Novo Nordisk could hinder the rollout of these treatments.
"Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater are both putting the brakes on investor withdrawals from their private credit funds... Blue Owl tends to fall because they have become the poster child for this." Retail investors are panicking over AI's potential disruption of software companies, which make up a massive portion of private credit portfolios. The liquidity mismatch of retail funds investing in illiquid private loans is forcing managers to gate redemptions, creating headline risk, forced selling, and potential markdowns on their loan books. AVOID. The structural liquidity mismatch in retail private credit funds is being exposed, making these asset managers highly vulnerable to sentiment shocks and capital flight. If the underlying software loans continue to perform and default rates remain low, the panic may subside, causing these stocks to rebound from oversold levels.
"Dick's is well-positioned to continue to take market share within the footwear and apparel space. We saw very healthy trends over the holiday season positioning them in a good spot as they enter 2026." Despite broader consumer trepidation, the sporting goods and athletic footwear categories remain resilient. Dick's Sporting Goods is successfully integrating its Foot Locker acquisition, allowing it to consolidate the market and drive full-year sales growth. LONG. Best-in-class retailers with strong brand partnerships are taking market share from weaker competitors in a cautious consumer environment. If gasoline prices sustainably breach $4-$5 per gallon, it could cause broad demand destruction that finally impacts resilient categories like athletic wear.
"Hot Wheels achieved last year its eighth consecutive record high. We expect another strong double digit growth year for Hot Wheels in 2026... In terms of integrating technology into our product and experiences, we believe this will represent an exciting way for us to reinvent." Mattel is successfully transitioning its legacy toys into high-growth lifestyle brands with strong adult collector demographics. Furthermore, their new partnership with OpenAI provides a vector to modernize play patterns, keeping the brand relevant and driving margin expansion. LONG. Strong brand momentum and technological innovation make the company resilient to macro headwinds, as parents historically prioritize spending on children. Sustained high oil prices could increase the cost of petroleum-based plastics and logistics, compressing gross margins if the company cannot pass costs to consumers.
"The silver trade is still alive and well... Tesla has been on the buy list. One of the optical names that is down a lot today, AAOI is the ticker." Retail investors on platforms like Robinhood are actively rotating out of the mega-cap "Magnificent 7" tech stocks to lock in profits. They are redeploying capital into beaten-down momentum plays (EVs, optical tech) and utilizing precious metals as a geopolitical hedge against inflation and war. WATCH. Retail flows are shifting toward contrarian dip-buying and hard asset hedges, which can create volatile, short-term momentum swings in these specific assets. Retail dip-buying in heavily shorted or fundamentally challenged stocks (like AAOI) can lead to catching falling knives if institutional selling persists.
"Vista... is aiming to produce 200,000 barrels a day, becoming the largest independent in Argentina. With low cost, more capital, we can play a very important role." As Middle East oil supplies are threatened by the Iran conflict, global buyers and investors are desperately seeking secure, non-OPEC energy alternatives. Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale offers Permian-like low extraction costs, and Vista Energy is rapidly scaling production to fill the global supply gap while benefiting from a newly deregulated export environment in Argentina. LONG. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East acts as a massive catalyst for emerging market shale producers capable of ramping up low-cost exports. A sudden drop in global oil prices or a return of capital controls and export restrictions by the Argentine government would severely damage the investment thesis.
"We are seeing in government a number of the projects advanced from the pilot phase to production phase... We have built a platform for open, scalable systems to enable all the great science occurring nationally." The U.S. government views AI and supercomputing as critical national security imperatives, shrinking procurement and deployment timelines drastically. Dell is a primary infrastructure provider for these massive, fast-tracked federal contracts, ensuring a highly lucrative and secure revenue stream. LONG. Sovereign AI investments and federal defense budgets are creating a massive, price-insensitive demand cycle for enterprise hardware providers. Supply chain bottlenecks in advanced semiconductors, memory, and power infrastructure could delay Dell's ability to fulfill these massive government orders.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published March 12, 2026, features Matt Miller, Dani Burger, Michael Lasser, Ynon Kreiz, Stephanie Guild, Miguel Galuccio, Michael Dell discussing MOS, CF, NTR, BMBL, HIMS, OWL, MS, DKS, FL, MAT, TSLA, AAOI, SLV, VIST, DELL. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Matt Miller, Dani Burger, Michael Lasser, Ynon Kreiz, Stephanie Guild, Miguel Galuccio, Michael Dell · Tickers: MOS, CF, NTR, BMBL, HIMS, OWL, MS, DKS, FL, MAT, TSLA, AAOI, SLV, VIST, DELL