Trade of The Week - MacroVoices #514
Speakers
Patrick Ceresna
— Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Erik Townsend
— Founder & Host, MacroVoices
Summary
MacroVoices post-game chart deck discusses crowded bullish positioning and near-term correction risk, with Patrick Ceresna presenting an S&P 500 put-spread hedge as the Trade of the Week. Erik Townsend frames 2026 equity risk around Trump policy initiatives and maintains a bearish dollar bias, while both hosts analyze oil's Venezuela-driven selloff, gold's bull trend, uranium's technical breakout, copper strength, and the 10-year Treasury yield setup. The tone is constructive on gold and uranium, cautious on near-term equities, and watchful on dollar, oil, and rates.
- Darius's positioning model shows extreme crowded bullish positioning, raising correction and chop risk.
- Patrick presents an S&P 500 6600/5900 April put spread as a defined-risk hedge.
- Erik sees two-sided equity risk from Trump policy, with volatility possibly lasting through midterms.
- Erik remains dollar bearish; Patrick watches DXY for a breakout above 99.
- Erik argues Venezuela oil news is overbearish; Patrick watches crude for basing above $60.
- Erik added to gold longs and targets 4900-5100; Patrick sees the gold bull trend continuing.
- Erik is bullish uranium and URA; Patrick watches uranium 80-85 resistance.
- Patrick notes copper's breakout to the $6 handle and the 10-year yield's limbo around 4.20.
Ideas
Hedge S&P correction with put spread
Darius's positioning model shows near-record crowded bullish positioning, statistically raising the odds of a meaningful correction or violent chop over the next 1-3 months. To stay broadly constructive but hedge that near-term risk, Patrick structures a 95/85 put spread on the S&P 500 with the index around 6920: buy the April 16 6600 put for about 106 and sell the April 5900 put for about 36, for a net debit of roughly 70 index points (~1% of the index). The spread kicks in about 5% below spot and protects down to roughly 15% lower; max payoff is about 630 for a 70 debit, roughly 9:1.
Hedge S&P correction with put spread
Darius's positioning model shows near-record crowded bullish positioning, statistically raising the odds of a meaningful correction or violent chop over the next 1-3 months. To stay broadly constructive but hedge that near-term risk, Patrick structures a 95/85 put spread on the S&P 500 with the index around 6920: buy the April 16 6600 put for about 106 and sell the April 5900 put for about 36, for a net debit of roughly 70 index points (~1% of the index). The spread kicks in about 5% below spot and protects down to roughly 15% lower; max payoff is about 630 for a 70 debit, roughly 9:1.
Policy risk makes equities volatile
Trump administration's bold policy initiatives create two-sided equity risk: if they succeed without court or political resistance, it is strongly positive for equities, but if they are derailed, an abrupt and deep correction is possible. Erik expects volatility to be the name of the game in 2026, with upside possible by year-end, but turbulence could last through the November midterm elections.
Rotate from MAG7 to equal-weight sectors
Market-cap-weighted S&P 500 is being dragged by the MAG 7 ETF, which remains below its 50-day moving average and is not participating on the upside. Meanwhile, breadth is improving with about 61% of stocks above their 50-day moving average, the equal-weight S&P 500 has bullishly broken out, and basic materials, healthcare, industrials/defense, and financials are leading. This points to sector rotation and broadening rather than immediate exhaustion, though a trigger could still change the picture.
Rotate from MAG7 to equal-weight sectors
Market-cap-weighted S&P 500 is being dragged by the MAG 7 ETF, which remains below its 50-day moving average and is not participating on the upside. Meanwhile, breadth is improving with about 61% of stocks above their 50-day moving average, the equal-weight S&P 500 has bullishly broken out, and basic materials, healthcare, industrials/defense, and financials are leading. This points to sector rotation and broadening rather than immediate exhaustion, though a trigger could still change the picture.
Stay bearish on US dollar
Erik remains in the US dollar down camp for overall direction, though he acknowledges plenty of room for a big rip higher if certain Trump policy initiatives play out. His base case is still lower for the US dollar, with volatility elevated especially in the first few months of the year.
Dollar index watch 99 breakout
Despite a predominant dollar bear thesis, the Dollar Index held critical 98 support instead of breaking down and is consolidating sideways between 98 and 99 after a Q3 double bottom. A legitimate technical breakout above 99 would signal new accumulation and a possible short-term trend; it is now testing the 50-day moving average near 99.
Venezuela oil bearishness is overdone
Erik argues that non-oil professionals are misinterpreting Venezuela news and creating an artificially bearish short-term oil sentiment. Venezuelan oil cannot flood the market: adding 1 million bpd of production takes at least three years, and the announced 30-50 million barrels are likely unavailable and would only be absorbed over weeks anyway. The selloff is sentiment-driven and does not change the 2026 oil outlook.
Crude watch for basing above $60
Crude oil remains in a clear downtrend, making lower highs and failing at the 50-day moving average. However, negative news is no longer causing hard selloffs or lower lows, which could mean a fair-value zone and trading bottom is forming. It is premature to call a bull market; a legitimate breakout above $60 is needed to turn the trend up.
Buy gold dips, target 4900-5100
Erik added 10% to gold longs on the retest of the breakout region at 2370 and another 15% at 2300, increasing his position size by 25%. The correction cleared extreme overbought stochastics, and medium/long-term fundamentals remain super bullish as Trump policy strengthens the case for central banks to diversify out of Treasuries into gold. Near-term risk is BCOM rebalancing forced selling from January 9-15; if gold undercuts to 4200, he will buy more. He targets 4900-5100 over the next several months.
Gold bull trend targets 4900-5000
Gold remains in a clean bull trend with dips being bought and bulls in control. Measured moves point to 4900-5000 upside, and if gold breaks to a 52-week high it could add another $300 per ounce in the first quarter.
Uranium bull market breaking higher
Erik sees uranium and uranium equities breaking away from the mainstream stock market and accelerating a strong bull market that has been in technical correction since October 15. Fundamentals are improving as Energy Secretary Chris Wright talks up the nuclear renaissance and increased US enrichment capacity, which boosts uranium demand. The URA ETF is lagging due to SMR names like Oklo and NuScale but has broken out of a symmetrical triangle and is important for institutional flows and options liquidity. The main risk is an AI trade unwind clobbering uranium miners through basketing, but the uranium thesis does not rely on AI; that would be a buy-the-dip opportunity.
Uranium watch 80-85 breakout
Patrick agrees uranium has turned up technically, with individual names pressing while URA lags. Uranium itself faces substantial 80-85 resistance from Q4; a breakout to a higher high could add bullish tailwind to the whole story through the first quarter.
Copper bull market targets 640-650
Copper broke out to a fresh new high, clearing the July tariff pop and hitting the $6 handle. Patrick sees a very clear bull market, though the move may be a little overextended, with upside targets at 640-650 if bulls continue.
10-year yield watch 4.20 breakout
The 10-year Treasury yield has been stuck in purgatory/limbo during December as the market waits for data to clarify the Fed's policy path. Friday's jobs numbers are the first trigger; whether yields break above 4.20 or fall back below the 50-day moving average could be decided early next week.
Up Next
This Macro Voices video, published January 08, 2026, features Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend discussing S&P 500 Index April 6600/5900 put spread, SPY, MAGS, RSP, XLB, XLV, XLI, ITA, XLF, DXY, WTI, GLD, URA, COPPER, US10Y. 15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend · Tickers: S&P 500 Index April 6600/5900 put spread, SPY, MAGS, RSP, XLB, XLV, XLI, ITA, XLF, DXY, WTI, GLD, URA, COPPER, US10Y