Groenlândia é o próximo alvo?; caso Master é absurdo; Banco Central sob ataque

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 10, 2026 at 11:01  |  37:12  |  Fernando Ulrich
Speakers
Fernando Ulrich — Financial Commentator, Independent

Summary

Fernando Ulrich answers viewer questions on Brazilian and global macro topics. He discusses election-year fiscal policy versus BCB rate policy, the Banco Master scandal, Milei's Argentina, US geopolitical actions in Venezuela, Iran, Panama and Greenland, US housing policy, and investment theses in platinum/palladium and offshore drilling. Main market implications include Selic cuts likely smaller than the government wants, positive read-through for US refiners and offshore drilling from Venezuelan oil, continued holding of Valterra Platinum, and a structurally cautious view on Brazil with a remote but severe BRL tail risk.

  • Ulrich expects fiscal expansion to collide with central bank restraint, with Selic falling less than the government wants.
  • The Banco Master scandal strengthens BCB independence but remains an unprecedented liquidation with systemic uncertainty.
  • Venezuelan oil normalization is positive for US refiners and offshore drilling demand.
  • The platinum/palladium thesis remains valid, and Ulrich has not sold Valterra Platinum.
  • Ulrich has no hope for Brazil, calling it condemned to mediocrity and recommending individual planning.
  • A remote but grave risk is political or STF interference in Selic setting, which would be very negative for the Brazilian real.
  • US politics remain focused on affordability, housing, and Western Hemisphere geopolitics including Venezuela, Iran, Panama and Greenland.
Ideas
Fernando Ulrich Financial Commentator, Independent 1:11
Selic cuts less than government wants
Brazil's election-year fiscal expansion and spending collide with the central bank's inflation-targeting mandate. Although inflation ended 2025 within the tolerance band, it remains above the 3% target. The Banco Master scandal makes political interference in monetary policy visible, strengthening the BCB's resolve not to cut rates as much as the government would like. Therefore, Selic may fall, but less than the government wants.
Selic MED
Fernando Ulrich Financial Commentator, Independent 8:43
Venezuelan crude helps US refiners
The US refining infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, Texas and Louisiana was built to process heavy Venezuelan crude. If Venezuelan oil returns to the market after US action, it is good news for American refiners, even though the primary US objective is reducing Chinese influence.
CRAK MED
Fernando Ulrich Financial Commentator, Independent 18:33
Hold Valterra on platinum upside
Ulrich has not sold his position in Valterra Platinum, formerly Anglo American Platinum. He says the platinum/palladium thesis still has significant upside based on data, and he is preparing an update with Marcelo Lopes.
VAL.JO PPLT PALL MED
Fernando Ulrich Financial Commentator, Independent 19:02
Venezuela boosts offshore drilling demand
Venezuela currently lacks production capacity and its oil infrastructure is degraded. In a scenario where more Venezuelan oil must be extracted, demand for offshore drilling services should keep growing, making the Venezuela case a positive for offshore drillers.
XLE MED
Fernando Ulrich Financial Commentator, Independent 20:20
No hope for Brazil, avoid
Ulrich has no hope for Brazil, arguing it is condemned to mediocrity because of historical and cultural issues and because meaningful change would take years or decades. He says salvation in Brazil is individual, through one's own work and business, and advises planning for the worst.
EWZ HIGH
Fernando Ulrich Financial Commentator, Independent 32:03
Watch political risk to Brazilian real
There is a grave, although currently remote, risk that the STF or political pressure could decide the Selic, subordinating monetary policy to politics. If that happened, the inflation-targeting regime and the Brazilian real would be severely damaged, so this tail risk should remain on investors' radar.
BRL MED
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This Fernando Ulrich video, published January 10, 2026, features Fernando Ulrich discussing Selic, CRAK, VAL.JO, PPLT, PALL, XLE, EWZ, BRL. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Fernando Ulrich  · Tickers: Selic, CRAK, VAL.JO, PPLT, PALL, XLE, EWZ, BRL