Ideas
Ethereum remains purest neutral open-source layer.
Ethereum is still potentially the only major L1 with the north star to remain a purely open-source, credibly neutral layer, while newer chains are closing source to capture more value. Its decentralization gives it a monetary aspect and a monetary premium, making it the most credible crypto asset outside Bitcoin.
L1s monetize open-source usage via native tokens.
L1 blockchains such as Bitcoin and Ethereum were the first open-source software where monetization was baked into usage: users must pay the network in the native token, and EIP-1559's burn creates direct value accrual to token holders. This lets developers and token holders capture value without building a separate commercial company on top.
Ethereum's usage fees create real value accrual.
Ethereum broke the open-source value-capture trade-off by baking monetization into usage: users must pay fees in ETH, and the EIP-1559 burn creates direct value accrual to token holders. This is the key innovation of general-purpose smart-contract L1s, and Ethereum's fee-generation capacity is underappreciated; he disagrees with those who short-change Ethereum or dismiss its monetary premium.
Bitcoin is compelling digital-gold-like meme coin.
Bitcoin is a very compelling meme coin / digital precious metal with real value like gold, but it lacks hard productive value and is unoptimized for fees or REV. It should be valued as a store-of-value asset rather than a productive cash-flow-generating network.
Solana, Hyperliquid broke both open-source tradeoffs.
Solana and Hyperliquid are probably the best examples of newer open-source blockchain projects that broke both the monetization and governance trade-offs: they retained enough control to remain competitive, users accepted that, and value accrual is baked into usage. This makes them more investable than most non-L1 crypto infrastructure.
Optimism's OP Stack adoption keeps it competitive.
Optimism is still very much in the running among L2s because Base and other chains use the OP Stack, and it has been successful onboarding new chains like Kraken's Ink. Its framework-adoption strategy could keep it relevant even if first-party rollup monetization is difficult.
Arbitrum has deepest, most liquid L2 DeFi.
Arbitrum One has been unbelievably successful and is essentially the only L2 with a deep, liquid, actively used DeFi ecosystem. That ecosystem is super valuable and should let Arbitrum remain one of the few significant L2 winners even as the broader L2 business model is challenged.
zkSync elegantly combines RaaS and token accrual.
zkSync's Elastic Chains model is elegant because it combines a rollup framework with a hosted RaaS solution and bakes token value accrual into settlement to a common L2. This solves the monetization problem that many rollup frameworks failed to solve, and Mike is paying attention to it.
RaaS middleware lacks economic power.
The middle of the open-source stack—rollup-as-a-service providers and middleware—lacks economic power because they own neither the end user nor the settlement layer, and users can build the stack themselves. This resembles Cosmos SDK's failure to capture value, creating risk for RaaS providers like Optimism.
L2 infrastructure value-capture model is broken.
The L1 open-source monetization model was overgeneralized to L2s and infrastructure layers, but it has not worked because value accrual is not naturally baked into those layers. He expects consolidation and possible business-model changes, making many L2/infrastructure tokens less attractive.
AI threatens B2B SaaS model.
The B2B/enterprise SaaS model is potentially at risk from AI: AI may make it easier to fork closed-source code and erode moats, while pricing shifts from flat recurring subscriptions toward usage-based models. This challenges the whole industry's business model, even though usage-based pricing is closer to L1 fee models.
Open-source AI is blockchain's biggest use case.
Open-source AI is catching up to closed-source AI, and blockchain can provide the incentives, transparency, auditability, and monetization rails for open-source models. As the performance gap narrows, open-source AI via crypto could become one of blockchain's biggest use cases, with apps using open-source APIs through blockchains more cheaply than closed-source APIs.
BitTensor creates a free market for AI.
BitTensor is a crypto-native open-source AI ecosystem where miners contribute models, validators rank outputs, and token emissions reward the best responses, creating a free market for AI. It has 100+ specialized subnets, a dedicated ecosystem, and some subnets doing well, making it a leading way to bet on open-source AI via blockchain, though still early.
This Bell Curve video, published January 10, 2026,
features Xavier, Myles O'Neil, Mike Ippolito
discussing ETH, Layer 1 tokens, BTC, SOL, HYPE, OP, ARB, ZK, Rollup-as-a-service providers, Layer 2 / crypto infrastructure, B2B SaaS, Open-source AI, TAO.
13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Xavier,
Myles O'Neil,
Mike Ippolito
· Tickers:
ETH,
Layer 1 tokens,
BTC,
SOL,
HYPE,
OP,
ARB,
ZK,
Rollup-as-a-service providers,
Layer 2 / crypto infrastructure,
B2B SaaS,
Open-source AI,
TAO
