LIVE: SpaceX IPO!! War Is OVER... Elon Is A TRILLIONAIRE!? Touching Grass Is BACK...
Speakers
Thread Guy
— Crypto influencer, independent
Summary
Thread Guy covers the historic SpaceX IPO, outlining a bullish thesis on limited float and strong incentives. He also presents longs in AMC, StubHub, copper, and Emerson Electric, while expressing bearish views on oil, MicroStrategy, and Zcash. The stream mixes market analysis with entertainment.
- SpaceX IPO heavily discussed, with low-float dynamics and potential for massive upside despite high valuation.
- AMC and StubHub seen as beneficiaries of upcoming major movie releases and the World Cup, respectively.
- Copper expected to break out on AI/robotics demand thesis.
- Oil prices seen as heading lower on peace deal expectations.
- Hyperliquid token bought for weekend volume after successful SpaceX IPO handling.
- MicroStrategy flagged as overpriced relative to Bitcoin, narrative broken.
- Robotics supply chain names like Emerson Electric favored.
Ideas
SpaceX IPO has a tiny float (4-5% with green shoe), Elon Musk is the greatest equity salesman of all time, and virtually all stakeholders are incentived to push the stock higher. The unlock schedule creates a strong incentive to keep the price above $175 prior to first earnings. He entered at an average of $167, believing there is an opportunity for fireworks even though conviction is not extreme.
World Cup catalyst not priced in.
StubHub is entering the World Cup season over the next 45 days. The ticket marketplace is likely to rip, and the market has not front-run the catalyst, implying further upside as the event approaches.
Movie slate revival drives AMC higher.
The upcoming movie slate, especially 'The Social Network Part Two' and other big titles, will drive massive ticket sales. AMC is back and the market's nearsighted pricing allows for a long position.
Unjustified premium over Bitcoin, avoid MSTR.
MicroStrategy's stock (MSTR) trades at a large premium to its Bitcoin holdings that never made sense. The premium narrative is broken, and there is no reason to pay more for Saylor's Bitcoin wrapper than buying Bitcoin directly.
Flawless IPO execution attracts volume boost.
Hyperliquid was the only major venue without outages during the SpaceX IPO, attracting massive volume and positive attention. He entered a small long position in the HYPE token around $6.14 as a hypothesis tester for continued weekend volume and positive sentiment.
Zcash delisting risk, dead for long.
Zcash is likely to get delisted from major platforms and will be dead for a long time with no buyers. It is not worth holding.
AI/robotics bottleneck drives copper higher.
Copper is making its fourth run at a key resistance level. The AI and robotics buildout will create a supply bottleneck, and copper never got the same bull run as silver and gold, leaving room for catch-up. He is interested in bidding here.
Oil drops as peace deal looms.
Oil has fallen to its lowest since mid-April, and with a potential Iran nuclear agreement and peace progress, prices should continue to decline. Long oil is a mistake.
Actuator leader for robotics bottleneck play.
Emerson Electric is the largest distributor of actuators in America, a key hardware component for the robotics supply chain. He likes it a lot as a play on the robotics bottleneck theme.
