Bloomberg Surveillance 4/22/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 22, 2026 at 14:29  |  2:24:17  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Vikas Dwivedi — Global Energy Strategist, Macquarie Group
Lindsay Rosner — Head of Digital Assets, Grayscale
Brian Nick — Head of Research, VanEck
James Picariello — Reporter, Boston Globe
Chris Watling — Chopping Block co-host

Summary

The discussion covers the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their market impact, particularly on oil prices and the airline industry. Guests analyze the resilience of the US consumer and equity markets, which seem to be looking past the conflict, while also noting the severe economic strain on Europe. The confirmation hearing for incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is also a key topic, with analysts debating the potential for a "regime change" in monetary policy.

  • Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue, with an extended but fragile ceasefire keeping oil prices elevated.
  • The physical oil market is showing signs of severe stress, with jet fuel shortages impacting airlines like United and Lufthansa.
  • US equity markets have remained resilient, with investors exhibiting "fear of missing out" and looking through the geopolitical noise.
  • Analysts debate whether market leadership will remain narrow and tech-focused or if a broadening to value and cyclicals can resume.
  • Europe's economy is showing significant strain from the energy shock, with Germany halving its growth forecast.
  • The confirmation hearing for Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh points to potential major changes in Fed communication and balance sheet policy.
  • Company-specific discussions include a bullish outlook for Rivian's R2 model and a bearish setup for Tesla ahead of its earnings.
  • The US consumer remains surprisingly strong, supported by tax refunds, though this cushion may be temporary.
Trade Ideas
Aaron Kennon 11:33
Buy secular growth outside of AI.
Secular growth companies outside of the main AI and SaaS themes are attractive. Their price-to-earnings multiples have compressed, yet they are still posting strong 10-20% annualized growth. These opportunities exist across various sectors, including healthcare, technology, and consumer discretionary. For example, Intuitive Surgical just had a very strong report and is effectively leveraging AI, positioning it well.
ISRG Secular Growth Stocks ex-AI MED
Vikas Dwivedi Global Energy Strategist, Macquarie Group 33:38
Oil futures disconnected from physical reality.
The oil futures market, particularly Brent, is structurally disconnected from the worsening physical market realities. The typical shock absorbers and convergence mechanisms are not working, meaning futures prices may not respond appropriately even as the physical situation deteriorates with shortages moving from jet fuel to diesel. This creates a broken market structure that warrants close monitoring, as the real economy impact is growing.
BNO HIGH
Lindsay Rosner Head of Digital Assets, Grayscale 54:50
Favor Emerging Markets over Europe now.
There is a clear relative value opportunity between Emerging Markets and Europe. Europe is highly unattractive due to its sensitivity to energy shocks as a net importer. In contrast, certain emerging markets are better positioned, making a strategy of leaning into EM and out of Europe compelling.
EEM HIGH
Lindsay Rosner Head of Digital Assets, Grayscale 54:50
Favor Emerging Markets over Europe now.
There is a clear relative value opportunity between Emerging Markets and Europe. Europe is highly unattractive due to its sensitivity to energy shocks as a net importer. In contrast, certain emerging markets are better positioned, making a strategy of leaning into EM and out of Europe compelling.
VGK HIGH
Lindsay Rosner Head of Digital Assets, Grayscale 55:58
Overweight banks for continued strong performance.
The US banking sector has performed tremendously well and remains an overweight position in our portfolios. This suggests a continued positive outlook for the sector.
KBE MED
Lindsay Rosner Head of Digital Assets, Grayscale 56:50
AI has proven its value now.
Investors should remain overweight equities and adopt a barbell strategy. The market structure has changed due to algorithmic trading and retail participation, making deep 'retests' after selloffs less likely. The optimal approach is to hold both technology stocks for growth and cyclical stocks to capture the broadening global recovery.
XLK HIGH
Brandon Oglenski 83:12
Long United Airlines on strong leadership.
United Airlines is a favored name for the long term. The company is on the right strategic track, driven by ambitious leadership under CEO Scott Kirby and a positive cultural shift within the organization.
UAL MED
Brandon Oglenski 83:51
Avoid American Airlines on weak strategy.
American Airlines has structurally underperformed its peers and should be avoided. The company has suffered from leadership turnover and lacks strategic ambition, failing to capitalize on megatrends like premium products and international travel. A key mistake was retiring its widebody fleet post-pandemic, which has put it at a disadvantage relative to Delta and United.
AAL MED
James Picariello Reporter, Boston Globe 114:42
Tesla faces challenging setup, cash burn.
Tesla faces a challenging setup and is unattractive. Core market auto volumes are flat, energy storage deployments are declining significantly, and further price cuts are likely needed. Combined with a high capex guidance of $20 billion, the company is expected to burn cash.
TSLA HIGH
James Picariello Reporter, Boston Globe 117:41
Rivian R2 will double company sales.
Rivian is a bullish story, primarily due to the upcoming R2 model. The R2 is forecast to sell around 85,000 units, which would more than double the company's current total sales volume of approximately 40,000 units. This presents a massive growth catalyst for the company.
RIVN HIGH
Chris Watling Chopping Block co-host 142:46
Barbell tech and cyclicals in equities.
Investors should remain overweight equities and adopt a barbell strategy. The market structure has changed due to algorithmic trading and retail participation, making deep 'retests' after selloffs less likely. The optimal approach is to hold both technology stocks for growth and cyclical stocks to capture the broadening global recovery.
XLY MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published April 22, 2026, features Aaron Kennon, Vikas Dwivedi, Lindsay Rosner, Brandon Oglenski, James Picariello, Chris Watling discussing ISRG, Secular Growth Stocks ex-AI, BNO, EEM, VGK, KBE, XLK, UAL, AAL, TSLA, RIVN, XLY. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Aaron Kennon, Vikas Dwivedi, Lindsay Rosner, Brandon Oglenski, James Picariello, Chris Watling  · Tickers: ISRG, Secular Growth Stocks ex-AI, BNO, EEM, VGK, KBE, XLK, UAL, AAL, TSLA, RIVN, XLY