Ideas
Dollar weakness trend likely continues.
The US dollar had reached a multi-year high and US equity market cap was disproportionately large versus the world. Trump pressure on the Fed, geopolitical uncertainty, and global fiscal concerns triggered a reversal toward dollar weakness and marginal reallocation out of the US, which is significantly positive for other markets.
Memory has pricing-power supply imbalance.
Memory is one of the niches where supply and demand are imbalanced and pricing power sits with producers, boosted by AI demand. Norte has related memory positions in its global book, specifically Micron and SanDisk.
Global reallocation and flow favor Brazil.
Brazilian equities were depressed at the end of 2024 on fiscal concerns, a dollar near 6.30, and a rate curve pricing almost 17% terminal. The subsequent global dollar reversal and US-to-emerging-market reallocation drove strong foreign inflows into Brazil, especially through EWZ and blue chips. He expects the flow and macro backdrop to remain supportive, with local rate cuts and a resilient economy, so Norte increased Brazil risk and beta.
Gold remains reserve of value.
Global fiscal concerns and demand for a reserve of value are driving gold, while gold production is limited and marginal demand has increased. He has held gold via gold miners for some time and sees the trend continuing despite occasional speculative pullbacks.
US-to-EM reallocation supports emerging markets.
A small realignment out of the US has an outsized impact because the US is about 70% of global market cap, while emerging-market valuations are much more depressed. This reallocation is not a negative macro development for emerging markets.
Low-income homebuilders benefit from incentives.
He likes Brazilian homebuilders and construction, especially low-income housing. The sector has been a long-held position since mid-2022 because government housing programs are structural regardless of who wins the election, and companies such as Cury and Direcional executed well.
Electric generation sector offers long-term value.
He likes the Brazilian electric sector, especially power generation, and says Eletrobras has been a long-held position.
Sanitation sector offers privatization upside.
He has long liked the Brazilian sanitation sector. It has been a core positive theme for Norte, expressed through names such as Sabesp and later Copasa, with privatization and regulatory improvement as drivers.
Vale benefits from metallic commodities and flows.
Norte was already positioned long Vale, contrarian versus many managers, based on a more positive view on metallic commodities. Vale also benefits from foreign flow into Brazilian blue chips and EWZ, and they increased the position.
Hard commodities have better supply-demand.
He is positive on metallic/hard commodities, naming iron ore, copper, and aluminum. The thesis is based on supply-demand dynamics and pricing power, and these are preferred over soft commodities.
Soft commodities lack pricing power.
He is negative on soft commodities, including agriculture and pulp/cellulose, because supply-demand is worse and companies lack pricing power. He uses soft commodities as funding for long hard-commodity positions.
Copom cuts should lower nominal rates.
Norte had a favorable view on local interest rates and applied in Brazilian pre/di futures before Copom, expecting the central bank to signal the start of rate cuts. The wording confirmed that, curves closed, and the position is still applied.
High carry supports Brazilian real.
He expects the dollar not to strengthen and likely to trade in a lower range, while Brazil offers violent carry. With USD/BRL around 5.25-5.30 and CDI near 15%, investors who sent money abroad lost heavily on FX plus carry, supporting the real.
Semiconductors benefit from AI demand.
Norte holds semiconductor positions in TSMC and Nvidia for more than two years, based on supply-demand dynamics, pricing power, and AI-related demand. Positions are kept small because Norte's core expertise is Brazil/Latin America.
Meta is cheap after underperformance.
He likes Meta at its valuation level because the stock suffered and underperformed, creating an attractive entry point within the technology/global book.
Uranium miners benefit from nuclear demand.
He has a uranium position via an ETF of uranium-producing/mining companies. AI and general energy demand require nuclear power, there is no easy substitute, few producers exist, and demand is large, giving pricing power to producers.
Suzano is weak soft-commodity exporter.
Suzano was a large long position at the end of 2024, but he exited as the soft-commodity/pulp dynamic worsened. The company is an exporter with weak pricing power, cannot pass through price increases, and is hurt if the dollar weakens, making it a candidate short/funding.
Brazil retail faces margin and demand pressure.
He does not like Brazilian retail. GLP1-related consumption changes, food deflation, lower volumes, e-commerce competition, and price aggression pressure margins, so retail names can be avoided or used as funding shorts.
GLP1 shifts consumption toward pharmacies.
The GLP1/obesity-drug consumption shift is a theme Norte explored. It is positive for pharmacies and they specifically mentioned Raia Drogasil and Pague Menos as beneficiaries.
Banks benefit from flows and execution.
Norte always carries an important bank position and rotates within a bank basket. They favor well-executed banks/managers and increased exposure to banks as part of the Brazilian flow trade, while using higher-beta banks such as BTG Pactual and Bradesco and lower-beta Itaú to adjust portfolio beta.
Prefer Itaú over Banco do Brasil.
In the bank pair, he prefers Itaú over Banco do Brasil. Banco do Brasil is the bank most exposed to agricultural credit to small producers and soft commodities, and he anticipated disappointing results tied to accounting/regulatory changes and provisions.
Sabesp privatization execution remains attractive.
Sabesp has been a long-held sanitation favorite since the start of the fund and was once the largest position before privatization. The privatization was executed quickly and well by Tarcísio's government, and he remains long Sabesp.
Copasa privatization creates asymmetric upside.
Copasa was a contrarian privatization thesis. The market only looked at EV/EBITDA versus Sabesp and ignored the possibility that Cemig would be removed from the Propag debt-renegotiation program, leaving Copasa as the viable privatization path. Debt renegotiation would cut interest costs, approvals advanced, sell-side upgrades followed, and the stock doubled from R$27-28 to R$53-54 while Norte remains long.
Rare earths face geopolitical supply tightness.
Rare earths are essential for batteries, EVs, phones, and technology, but refining/supply is heavily concentrated in China. Brazil has the world's second-largest deposits, the US and Europe want non-China supply, few producers exist, and international funding is coming into projects. He likes the theme despite low liquidity.
Virides advances Brazilian rare earths project.
Norte owns Virides, a Brazilian rare-earth company listed in Australia with operations in Brazil. It just obtained an important preliminary installation license and already has funding for the project, advancing the rare-earth thesis.
Priner benefits from mining services demand.
Norte owns Priner, a small-cap special-services company that originated from a Mills division and acquired CMEP to serve mining. It rents/operates equipment, has long-term contracts with miners, benefits from high iron ore, gold, and copper prices, and is taking contracts from failed competitors. He says the company could double in two years and has low market coverage.
Petrobras is flow-driven long.
Norte increased Petrobras due to the foreign flow into Brazilian blue chips and EWZ creation, even though he is not highly optimistic on oil itself and prefers PRIO for micro reasons.
PRIO offers superior production growth execution.
PRIO is a main large position and his preferred oil exposure. Although he is not bullish on the oil price, he likes PRIO's management, execution, acquisitions, Peregrino production growth, increasing output, and high cash yield. He would hold much more PRIO than Petrobras.
Oil may fall if geopolitics calm.
He is not optimistic on the oil price itself due to supply-demand. If Iran-related geopolitics calms, oil should return to around 60, so his preference is to express oil through company-specific micro stories rather than outright oil.
Moderate portfolio balances rates equities diversification.
For a moderate R$100k investor with a 5-year horizon, he recommends a diversified portfolio: about 25-35% in equity long-short multimercado funds, citing Norte Equity Hedge; about 15-20% in good Brazilian equity funds/FOFs; about 25% in NTN-B 2035, preferring 2035 over 2050; and about 20-25% abroad via an S&P 500 ETF. High local real rates make NTN-B attractive, while diversified equity long-short and global S&P exposure add return and diversification.
This Market Makers video, published February 11, 2026,
features Gustavo Salomão
discussing DXY, MU, SNDK, EWZ, BOVA11.SA, GLD, GDX, EEM, CYRE3.SA, DIRR3.SA, Brazilian electric generation sector, ELET3.SA, Brazilian sanitation sector, VALE3.SA, Iron Ore, COPPER, Aluminum, Soft commodities, Pulp/cellulose, DBA, DI futures, USDBRL, TSM, NVDA, META, URA, SUZB3.SA, Brazilian retail sector, RDOR3.SA, PGMN3.SA, BPAC11.SA, BBDC4.SA, ITUB4.SA, BBAS3.SA, SBSP3.SA, CSMG3.SA, REMX, VMM.AX, PRNR3.SA, PETR4.SA, PRIO3.SA, WTI, Norte Equity Hedge, Brazilian equity long-short multimercado funds, Brazilian equity funds/FOFs, NTN-B 2035, SPY.
30 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Gustavo Salomão
· Tickers:
DXY,
MU,
SNDK,
EWZ,
BOVA11.SA,
GLD,
GDX,
EEM,
CYRE3.SA,
DIRR3.SA,
Brazilian electric generation sector,
ELET3.SA,
Brazilian sanitation sector,
VALE3.SA,
Iron Ore,
COPPER,
Aluminum,
Soft commodities,
Pulp/cellulose,
DBA,
DI futures,
USDBRL,
TSM,
NVDA,
META,
URA,
SUZB3.SA,
Brazilian retail sector,
RDOR3.SA,
PGMN3.SA,
BPAC11.SA,
BBDC4.SA,
ITUB4.SA,
BBAS3.SA,
SBSP3.SA,
CSMG3.SA,
REMX,
VMM.AX,
PRNR3.SA,
PETR4.SA,
PRIO3.SA,
WTI,
Norte Equity Hedge,
Brazilian equity long-short multimercado funds,
Brazilian equity funds/FOFs,
NTN-B 2035,
SPY
