Bloomberg Surveillance 2/24/2026
Speakers
Summary
- Tariff Chaos & Legal Limbo: The Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA-based tariffs, leading to a chaotic environment where the White House is threatening new 10-15% tariffs via different authorities. While the long-term view suggests a return to Congressional authority (bullish for stability), the short-term reality is frozen corporate capex and hiring due to uncertainty.
- The "AI Scare" vs. Capex Reality: A fictional report about AI causing 10% unemployment triggered a software sell-off, highlighting extreme market nervousness. However, actual corporate behavior contradicts the fear: Meta committed billions to AMD, and Intuit partnered with Anthropic, signaling that infrastructure spend is accelerating, not slowing.
- Private Credit Battleground: A sharp divergence in views emerged. Jamie Dimon (JPM) warned of "dumb things" in private credit reminiscent of 2005-2007. Conversely, Bank of America (Siegenthaler) issued a strong buy call on the sector (specifically Blue Owl), citing "misinformation" as an entry point.
- Bond Market Confidence: Fixed income bulls are resurfacing. With the 10-year yield hovering near 4% and equity volatility rising, J.P. Morgan's Bob Michele sees the bond market as "perfectly priced" and a magnet for capital fleeing riskier assets.
Trade Ideas
"On an earnings ratio we are looking at April lows... This is a low bar for NVIDIA... likely to continue to flow because GPU generations are shipping in volume." The market has kept the stock range-bound due to fears over the Blackwell delay and valuation concerns. However, the shift to volume production for Blackwell Ultra means revenue recognition is imminent. The valuation has compressed relative to earnings growth, offering an asymmetric entry before the next guidance beat. LONG Delays in the "Vera Rubin" chip generation or geopolitical restrictions on China sales.
"The biggest and most important ratio is equal weight consumer discretionary versus staples... It has broken down to start the beginning of the year... seeing lower highs and lower lows." The technical breakdown in the Discretionary/Staples ratio signals the consumer is weakening under the surface (wealth effect waning, savings depleted). This contradicts the "soft landing" narrative and suggests risk assets are vulnerable to a correction. AVOID A renewed Fed dovish pivot or fiscal stimulus reigniting consumer spending.
"FedEx is another one that lined up... sue the government to be in line to get part of that 70 billion of tariffs that were paid." Following the Supreme Court ruling, companies that paid IEEPA tariffs are filing for refunds. While the process is "messy" and "slow," a successful clawback of billions would be a massive one-time injection of cash for FedEx, potentially used for buybacks or capex. WATCH Litigation takes years; Congress passes retroactive legislation to validate the collected tariffs.
"Meta will spend billions over the next five years and receive warrants to buy 160 million [AMD] shares... Six gigawatts of data in a blockbuster deal." This validates AMD's technology at the hyperscaler level, breaking the narrative that Nvidia has a total monopoly. The inclusion of warrants aligns Meta's incentives with AMD's stock performance, creating a massive, guaranteed buyer for years. LONG Execution risk on chip delivery; Nvidia responding with aggressive pricing.
"We look for a decline in Brent from around 70 to 60... We still look for a global surplus... Energy equities are increasing the price on the long-term robust oil." There is a divergence. The commodity (Oil) is bearish due to structural oversupply (1.8m bpd growth vs 1.2m demand). However, Energy Equities are undervalued, efficient, and paying dividends, allowing them to outperform the underlying commodity. SHORT CRUDE OIL / LONG ENERGY EQUITIES A major geopolitical escalation (e.g., Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz) which could spike oil to $200.
"There is a significant level of misinformation weighing on the private credit industry which has led to a particularly attractive buying opportunity... When I hear people say that private credit is not transparent, it is really not true." The market sold off Blue Owl (OWL) based on fears of retail redemptions and "self-dealing" (selling assets to their own insurance arm). Siegenthaler argues these fears are factually incorrect (assets sold at par to third parties), creating a dislocation between price and fundamental value. LONG A true recession causing a spike in defaults which would validate the "canary in the coal mine" thesis.
"Intuit shares... announcing not long ago they are reaching a deal with Anthropic to power AI agents to their offerings." The market is punishing "legacy" software stocks out of fear they will be displaced by AI. Intuit integrating Anthropic proves incumbents can leverage their proprietary data (tax/financial) to enhance their product rather than be replaced by it. This differentiates them from "empty" AI hype stocks. LONG AI integration fails to drive new revenue or simply cannibalizes existing seat-based pricing.
Bob Michele
CIO and Head of Global Fixed Income, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
"The bond market is sitting here with a growing stack of chips... We are the perfectly priced market... Even if inflation runs at about 3% this year, you are talking about positive yields." As equity markets face "AI anxiety" and tariff confusion, capital is rotating. With yields >4% and credit spreads behaving (assuming no recession), bonds offer a "counterbalance to risk" that is mathematically attractive compared to expensive equities. LONG Inflation re-accelerating significantly, forcing the Fed to hike or hold rates higher for longer.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 24, 2026, features Beth Kindig, Cameron Dawson, Lisa Abramowicz, Ed Ludlow, Daan Struyven, Craig Siegenthaler, Matt Stucky, Bob Michele discussing NVDA, XLY, FDX, AMD, WTI, OWL, INTU, TLT. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Beth Kindig, Cameron Dawson, Lisa Abramowicz, Ed Ludlow, Daan Struyven, Craig Siegenthaler, Matt Stucky, Bob Michele · Tickers: NVDA, XLY, FDX, AMD, WTI, OWL, INTU, TLT