Iran War: Trump Says 'No Rush' as US, Iran Inch Towards Deal | Daybreak Europe 05/25/2026
Speakers
Charu Chan
— Crypto Analyst, CoinDesk
Summary
Markets rally on optimism over a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices below $100 and global stocks near record highs. Charu Chanana recommends buying 30-year Treasuries at 5% and warns the S&P 500 is overvalued. The FAO chief economist warns of a food crisis if the Strait closure continues.
- US and Iran close to a deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- Oil prices fall sharply on deal optimism; Brent below $100.
- Global stocks near record highs on the geopolitical news.
- Charu Chanana advises buying 30-year Treasuries at 5% yield.
- She says the S&P 500 is overvalued with a fair value of 5700.
- ECB likely to raise inflation outlook, signaling potential rate hike.
- FAO warns of food price crisis due to fertilizer shortages from the Strait closure.
- Markets face higher-for-longer yields as inflation risks persist.
Trade Ideas
S&P 500 overvalued, avoid
The S&P 500's fair value is around 5700, but the index is nearly 2000 points above that. The equity risk premium is near zero, implying very low prospective returns over the next 5-10 years. This makes the market unattractive for long-term investors.
Buy 30-year Treasuries at 5%
At a 5% yield, 30-year US Treasuries are a buying opportunity. The bad news is already priced in, deficits are a threat but not going away, and a short-term rally in long-duration bonds is likely if the Iran deal goes through. The 5% level has proven to be a line in the sand.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published May 25, 2026, features Charu Chan discussing SPY, TLT. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Charu Chan · Tickers: SPY, TLT