People Don’t Realize ‘How Bad This Could Get’; Gold To $7,000 In Dollar Crisis

Summary

Luke Gromen and James Thorne debate the outlook for the US dollar, Treasury market, inflation, and gold. Luke argues Trump administration policies are forcing capital out of US paper assets, making gold and T-bills his highest-conviction holdings while he expects Treasury yields to rise until policy caps them. Jim sees a managed dollar decline and lower rates as necessary, expects a near-term reflation/relief rally in Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100, and remains long-term bullish on the S&P 500 for demographic reasons.

• Luke says the Trump administration's America First investment policy aims to reverse global capital and trade flows, pressuring US financial assets and the dollar.
• He expects a US debt downgrade and Treasury yields to keep rising until yield curve control or other caps are imposed.
• Luke favors gold and T-bills near term, sees the DXY eventually in the 70s, and expects a weaker dollar to benefit EM, EM banks, Bitcoin, and stocks longer term.
• Jim calls for a managed US dollar decline and lower rates into 2027, arguing negative real rates are needed and US Treasuries become relatively more attractive.
• Jim targets gold at $5,000 by end-2028 and likes junior gold miners, Bitcoin, and the Nasdaq 100 in a reflation/relief rally.
• Jim remains long-term bullish on the S&P 500 due to demographics and expects the structural crisis later, while Luke is near-term bearish equities but longer-term bullish.
• Both discuss stablecoins, Bitcoin-backed bonds, and a possible new global monetary system as potential responses to unsustainable debt.