Ideas
Avoid equities amid reallocation selloff.
Avi sees the current equity decline as a dangerous reallocation selloff rather than a uniform deleveraging: equities are grinding lower while gold and Bitcoin rise, which is scarier for equity holders. He says the market is terrified of holding equities and that fear is reasonable given the environment.
Long gold as state-independent reserve asset.
Avi says he shifted his portfolio into gold and remains giggle bullish because in a multipolar world assets not tied to a state become more valuable. The PBOC is divesting US securities and buying gold, the dollar is weakening, and allocators seeking alternatives to equities have few options besides gold, creating a durable bid.
Bitcoin decouples from equities as digital gold.
Jonah argues gold is previewing Bitcoin: allocators are spooked by the equity selloff and, after maxing out gold, need another decorrelated asset. Bitcoin is showing relative strength versus Nasdaq and decoupling from equities, so if it proves it can act as an institutional equities hedge, flows into a much smaller asset could become silly.
Avoid MicroStrategy due to Saylor debt risk.
Avi is uncomfortable with Saylor and MicroStrategy buying all the way down; the average purchase price is now near $70k, which he calls scary and too much of the market. He says if the underlying business can service debt, Saylor may not be stopped out, but such financial-engineering-driven structures often end badly, so MicroStrategy is unattractive and risky.
Watch Metaplanet copycat Bitcoin treasury private placements.
Jonah highlights a trade institutions see via private placements in MicroStrategy competitors. Metaplanet in Japan is buying Bitcoin aggressively, is the world's 10th-largest corporate holder, targets 21,000 BTC by 2026, and trades at a large premium to NAV after private placements. He thinks such private placements are reasonably good trades but has no take on buying the open-market stock, making it a monitorable setup.
Buy underpriced Bitcoin call options.
Avi thinks Bitcoin tails are underpriced: end-year IV in the mid-50s is low versus the potential for a fast institutional and sovereign-driven move. He specifically likes BTC Dec 31 $170k calls around $3k and June 27 $100k calls around $3.5k, suggesting large upside if Bitcoin moves to $100k-$120k, and says IBIT calls are a liquid alternative.
Short ETH, long quality revenue-generating altcoins.
Avi expects a selective alt season limited to a small group of real-revenue projects. He wants to short ETH against long positions in Pendle, Hyperliquid, and Bittensor/TAO, thinking these can have option-like upside and outperform ETH over six months as the market separates wheat from chaff.
Short ETH, long quality revenue-generating altcoins.
Avi owns Hyperliquid and views it as the best business in crypto: an exchange that returns 95%+ of fee profits via token buybacks, with fees equal to revenue, around $7M/day 7-day revenue, and a P/E roughly in line with Nasdaq. It is anti-fragile, benefits from volatility, and the buyback is reflexive; he may scale out around $25-$30 but has not sold.
Short ETH, long quality revenue-generating altcoins.
Avi expects a selective alt season limited to a small group of real-revenue projects. He wants to short ETH against long positions in Pendle, Hyperliquid, and Bittensor/TAO, thinking these can have option-like upside and outperform ETH over six months as the market separates wheat from chaff.
Avoid ETH as broken revenue narrative.
Jonah argues ETH has broken investor trust: people realized ETH could be a seven-year pump-and-dump, it was deflationary only briefly, stopped making substantial money, and then fell sharply. He says he cannot buy anything unless it makes money, so ETH is now an avoid.
Long Curve as stablecoin fee beneficiary.
Jonah says Curve is a real fee-generating protocol that passes value back to holders and should be a general winner, especially if stablecoins heat up and users move to Curve as a trading venue. Valuation is less attractive at around $1.3B FDV and 167x P/E, so the edge is less clear.
This 1000x Podcast video, published April 21, 2025,
features Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg
discussing QQQ, SPY, GLD, BTC, MSTR, Metaplanet, BTC Dec 31 $170k call options, BTC Jun 27 $100k call options, IBIT calls, TAO, PENDLE, HYPE, ETH, CRV.
11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Avi Felman,
Jonah Van Bourg
· Tickers:
QQQ,
SPY,
GLD,
BTC,
MSTR,
Metaplanet,
BTC Dec 31 $170k call options,
BTC Jun 27 $100k call options,
IBIT calls,
TAO,
PENDLE,
HYPE,
ETH,
CRV
