Recession Around The World: Market Correction Of ‘Cyclical Degree’ Not Over | Felix Zulauf

Summary

Felix Zulauf returns to discuss his 2025 outlook after correctly anticipating a Q1 market correction. He expects a global recession, a possible retest of the April 7 lows before a new secular bull market, and a continued structural shift away from the US dollar and US Treasuries. He remains long-term bullish on gold and US equities but sees near-term risks in gold, commercial and residential real estate, and long-duration bonds.

• Felix Zulauf says the Q1 correction was of cyclical degree and may not be over; he sees a possible retest or marginal undercut of the April 7 S&P 500 low before a turn higher.
• He expects a global recession in 2025 driven by tariffs, policy uncertainty, reduced government spending, and stretched consumers.
• He believes the US dollar has structurally lost reserve status, with foreign holders able to sell US assets and central banks diversifying into gold.
• He is long-term bullish on gold but warns of a buying climax and multi-month correction.
• He expects structurally higher inflation and interest rates, making long-term bonds riskier than stocks over the next five to seven years.
• He sees US commercial and residential real estate as peaked or correcting.
• He expects fiscal stimulus and eventually more QE to lead to rising nominal growth, inflation, rates, and asset prices, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching 7,500 by 2027.