Governo nega CRISE FISCAL; emprego cai nos EUA; custo bilionário da IA

Summary

Fernando Ulrich argues that Brazil's fiscal policy is unsustainable, keeping interest rates high and leaving the exchange rate as the last variable to adjust. Externally, he sees gold rallying on central bank yield-curve control, and he warns that the AI mega-cap capex boom depends on unprofitable application companies, threatening AI semiconductor stocks and pressuring US long-term yields.

• Brazilian retail and industrial production are stalling, with families heavily indebted and inflation above target.
• The Lula government denies a fiscal crisis and blames external factors while tax increases offset spending, masking the primary deficit.
• Brazil's Central Bank is expected to cut rates only gradually, leaving the real (BRL) as the likely shock absorber if fiscal policy does not improve.
• A US Treasury intervention to buy yen and prevent BOJ from selling Treasuries is seen as financial repression, boosting gold above $4,300/oz.
• US July payrolls showed a net loss of 23k jobs with downward revisions, taking a rate hike off the table and supporting gold.
• AI hyperscaler capex is set to reach 3.1% of US GDP next year, but model and application companies have -60% margins, raising sustainability concerns for the semiconductor supply chain.
• Massive debt issuance by hyperscalers to fund AI capex is competing with Treasury supply, pushing US 30-year yields higher.