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Goldman Sachs Cuts Fourth-Quarter Crude Forecast to $80

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 24, 2026 at 12:18  |  5:23  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Daan Struyven — Head of Oil Research, Goldman Sachs
Host — Anchor, Bloomberg

Summary

Goldman Sachs cut its Q4 crude forecast to $80. Daan Struyven explains the three reasons oil prices are falling rapidly: quick supply recovery, a challenged security premium, and structural demand risks from EV adoption. The discussion also highlights tighter refined product markets and a shift in focus toward rare earths and metals as supply chains become the new strategic domain.

  • Goldman Sachs lowers Q4 crude forecast to $80.
  • Three drivers of oil decline: fast supply recovery, premium unwinding, EV-related demand fears.
  • Gulf exports already at 60% of pre-war levels; non-ME supply up 3 mb/d YoY.
  • China crude imports collapsed from 10 mb/d to 6 mb/d, heavily weighing on prices.
  • Refined product markets remain structurally tighter than crude, supporting gasoline.
  • Rare earths and metals identified as the next commodity focus amid supply-chain stockpiling.
Ideas
Daan Struyven Head of Oil Research, Goldman Sachs 0:45
Oil prices falling on supply, premium, EVs
Oil prices are declining rapidly for three reasons: a quick supply recovery with Gulf exports back to 60% of pre-war levels; markets challenging the need for a large sticky security premium; and rising probability of structural demand weakness as EV sales surge, particularly in China. Additional supply strength outside the Middle East (US, Brazil) reinforces the bearish outlook.
WTI HIGH
Daan Struyven Head of Oil Research, Goldman Sachs 2:51
Refined products tighter than crude, supporting gasoline
Refined product markets are structurally tighter than crude markets. This tightness, combined with seasonal summer demand and a lagged pass-through, explains why retail gasoline prices are not falling as fast as crude. The relative tightness supports refined product prices versus crude.
UGA MED
4:46
Rare earths and metals become next focus
Supply chains are the new domain of global leadership, and rare earths/critical minerals cannot be easily replaced like oil. Stockpiling focus is shifting toward rare earths and metals, making them the next major commodity opportunity.
REMX XME LOW
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published June 24, 2026, features Daan Struyven discussing WTI, UGA, REMX, XME. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Daan Struyven  · Tickers: WTI, UGA, REMX, XME