Trading Crypto's Weekend Meltdown

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 03, 2025 at 18:00  |  59:33  |  1000x Podcast
Speakers
Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol
Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management

Summary

The hosts review a severe weekend crypto liquidation event triggered by Trump's new tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Bitcoin held up relatively well while altcoins, especially ETH and speculative tokens, collapsed; they discuss shorting broken-trend alts and the 'inverse alt season' trade. They also debate Bitcoin's long-term role as a neutral reserve asset in a multipolar world and highlight pockets of opportunity such as Hyperliquid, Monero, ETF-candidate alts, and AI-agent tokens.

  • Crypto suffered a major weekend liquidation event; Bitcoin outperformed while altcoins were crushed.
  • Trump's tariffs on Canada and Mexico sparked risk-off moves in S&P futures and crypto.
  • The hosts favor shorting overvalued or broken-trend altcoins, including WIF and SUI.
  • They debate whether tariffs are a negotiating tactic and expect a partial walk-back.
  • Long-term, they see trade wars and dollar weaponization as bullish for Bitcoin and privacy coins.
  • Monero's privacy narrative and resilience were highlighted, though Avi remained cautious.
  • Hyperliquid, Solana, XRP, LTC, and AI-agent tokens were mentioned as relative opportunities.
  • ETH was viewed as the short leg of the cycle due to four years of weak performance.
Ideas
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 3:23
Hold Solana as quality battleship altcoin.
Solana has held up much better than other alts, down only around 3% during the washout, because quality matters. He views it as a battleship asset to hold or buy outright rather than treating it as a speculative pair trade.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 3:23
Hold Bitcoin as multipolar reserve asset.
He remains mostly in Bitcoin and advocates holding it through the alt carnage. Longer term, trade wars and dollar weaponization undermine the dollar's reserve status and create demand for an apolitical reserve asset; in a multipolar world, Bitcoin is a dark-horse alternative reserve currency and could be worth vastly more over 10 years.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 4:10
Short WIF on failed Sphere scam news.
Dogwifhat's promised Sphere listing was exposed as a charade/scam: it rallied from $1.50 to $2 on the listing narrative, then news revealed it was not going on the Sphere and the team had just been collecting money with no intention of following through. Despite extremely bearish news, it traded back where it was before the narrative began, creating a clean short to neutralize crypto exposure; he calls it his biggest crypto short.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 5:59
Short ETH, dog of cycle.
ETH has been the dog of the cycle and has done nothing interesting for four years. Capital entering crypto no longer lifts all boats; it must go to specific projects. ETH is widely used as the short leg, and he later says his favorite trade includes shorting ETH to zero.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 6:10
Short SUI after 50-day trend break.
In this market, once an altcoin breaks the trend it has held, especially the 50-day moving average, it is effectively done. SUI broke its 50-day moving average at $4.50 and then fell roughly 50% in a straight line, confirming the short setup.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 8:58
Short overvalued altcoins in inverse alt season.
The old alt-season playbook, where Bitcoin rallies and capital rotates into altcoins, is dead because there are too many tokens and ETF/institutional Bitcoin buyers do not rotate into illiquid alts. The easy trade is now the inverse: short oversupplied coins trading at multi-billion FDVs that have not fallen enough, or where blatantly bearish news has not moved the price; he mentions SUI, Doge, ai16z, Trump, and WIF as examples.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 15:30
Long ETF-candidate alts against ETH.
Coins with pending or likely ETF catalysts, including XRP, Litecoin, and Solana, were nuked hard, likely because crowded positioning was liquidated. ETF catalysts are the last remaining real catalyst outside Bitcoin, so this creates an entry to buy those alts, preferably expressed against ETH for better risk-adjusted alpha; he would buy SOL outright as a battleship but prefers XRP and LTC against ETH.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 16:59
Hold Bitcoin long term on catalysts.
He can hold Bitcoin long term because there are many good catalysts for it, and he later lists Bitcoin among his favorite trades.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 17:06
Accumulate AI agent coins after washout.
AI-agent and general AI coins have strong catalysts, and after the broad selloff he is comfortable accumulating them at these levels.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 17:13
Buy Virtuals as washed-out AI agent.
He is comfortable accumulating AI-agent coins at these washed-out levels and specifically calls Virtuals a good buy to hold and not touch, citing good catalysts for agents and general AI coins.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 23:42
Long HYPE as quality real value.
Hyperliquid is one of the few assets that held up or rose during the alt crash because it has genuine real value and quality. He says the trade is to close crypto shorts and get long HYPE if not already positioned.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 23:59
Long Monero as private Bitcoin alternative.
Monero is the largest privacy coin and has quietly outperformed; its 'Bitcoin but untraceable' narrative is attractive and demand for privacy is real. As Bitcoin becomes more tracked through ETFs and regulated venues, Monero functions as a Swiss bank in your pocket; he thinks it is probably worthwhile to hold in a portfolio despite the difficulty of pairing or trading it.
Up Next

This 1000x Podcast video, published February 03, 2025, features Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman discussing SOL, BTC, WIF, ETH, SUI, Overvalued/oversupplied altcoins, XRP, LTC, AI agent tokens, VIRTUAL, HYPE, XMR. 12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman  · Tickers: SOL, BTC, WIF, ETH, SUI, Overvalued/oversupplied altcoins, XRP, LTC, AI agent tokens, VIRTUAL, HYPE, XMR