What Happens To Markets Once DeepSeek's True Risks Are Priced In | Bradley Tusk

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 03, 2025 at 04:17  |  27:31  |  The David Lin Report
Speakers
Bradley Tusk — Founder and CEO, Tusk Ventures

Summary

Bradley Tusk, CEO of Tusk Ventures, discusses DeepSeek's disruptive AI model, Alibaba's Qwen, Jevons paradox, and what these mean for Nvidia, AI/tech equities, and the NASDAQ. He argues markets were irrational around AI, but cheaper AI can still benefit the broader tech sector while threatening high-end chip incumbents and closed-source generative AI. The conversation also covers VC and IPO/M&A conditions, David Sacks' tech policy role, TikTok's uncertain sale/ban path, and crypto regulation, with Tusk favoring crypto broadly and stablecoins specifically.

  • DeepSeek's low-cost model and unverified claims sparked a sharp Nvidia selloff and debate over U.S. AI competitiveness.
  • Tusk sees the prior Nvidia rally as irrational and warns high-end chip incumbents face commoditization risk.
  • He remains constructive on AI and tech broadly because cheaper compute can drive scale adoption, while open-source AI threatens closed-source models.
  • He expects NASDAQ stability over the next quarter rather than an extreme bull run or broad selloff.
  • VC conditions may improve with lower rates, new FTC/SEC leadership, and pent-up IPO and M&A demand.
  • TikTok's fate depends on CCP negotiating strategy and whether algorithms are included in any sale.
  • Tusk favors crypto broadly due to clearer regulation and picks stablecoins as the standout crypto subsector.
  • A national crypto stockpile is framed as speculative and tied to a systemic-risk worldview.
Ideas
Bradley Tusk Founder and CEO, Tusk Ventures 1:07
Nvidia rally irrational; commoditization threatens high-end focus.
Tusk argues the prior Nvidia bull run was not rational because it assumed Nvidia GPUs would be the only chips used forever. DeepSeek may not make Nvidia useless, but if AI compute commoditizes, a company focused on high-end chips could be left out unless it offers a broad range of chips for every price point; Jevons paradox is not automatically a clean positive for Nvidia.
NVDA HIGH
Bradley Tusk Founder and CEO, Tusk Ventures 5:44
Cheaper AI boosts overall AI and tech.
More efficient and cheaper AI is good for the overall AI and tech sectors because for technology to scale, computing costs and energy usage need to fall and the technology needs to become commoditized; this adoption trend can be positive even if Nvidia specifically does not benefit.
AI-SECTOR XLK HIGH
Bradley Tusk Founder and CEO, Tusk Ventures 6:19
Microsoft's OpenAI stake risks cheap AI.
Microsoft's substantial investment in OpenAI could suffer if users decide OpenAI's model is not better enough to justify its higher cost versus cheaper or open-source alternatives, though Microsoft's other products might benefit from the broader trend of lower AI costs.
MSFT MED
Bradley Tusk Founder and CEO, Tusk Ventures 11:06
Open-source AI gains; closed-source AI risks.
If DeepSeek's claimed cost advantages are true, open-source AI should ultimately see much greater adoption, making investments in closed generative AI systems riskier; Tusk says he would be worried even as a generative AI investor in closed systems.
Open-source AI MED
Bradley Tusk Founder and CEO, Tusk Ventures 11:42
NASDAQ likely stable; avoid extremes.
After DeepSeek, Tusk sees no need for the NASDAQ to move dramatically in either direction over the next quarter. Investors should accept ongoing AI evolution rather than chase an absolute bull run or sell everything on a white paper; some stability is the better path.
NASDAQ Composite MED
Bradley Tusk Founder and CEO, Tusk Ventures 14:20
Venture capital outlook improves in 2025.
Tusk expects a better year for venture capital as lower interest rates improve risk appetite, new FTC/SEC leadership reduces the M&A chilling effect, DOGE-style government tech adoption helps, and pent-up IPO demand can be released.
Venture Capital MED
Bradley Tusk Founder and CEO, Tusk Ventures 20:49
Meta may gain TikTok users.
If TikTok is banned or goes dark, Meta could be the most obvious beneficiary with as many as 170 million users up for grabs, but enforcement and Zuckerberg's apparent caution toward Trump create uncertainty around that setup.
META MED
Bradley Tusk Founder and CEO, Tusk Ventures 24:51
Stablecoins are top crypto pick.
Stablecoins could be the standout crypto subsector this year because FIT21 is moving through Congress, stablecoins are prominent in the crypto executive order, and Circle is looking to IPO; if forced to pick one crypto area, Tusk picks stablecoins.
STABLECOINS HIGH
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This The David Lin Report video, published February 03, 2025, features Bradley Tusk discussing NVDA, AI-SECTOR, XLK, MSFT, Open-source AI, NASDAQ Composite, Venture Capital, META, STABLECOINS. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Bradley Tusk  · Tickers: NVDA, AI-SECTOR, XLK, MSFT, Open-source AI, NASDAQ Composite, Venture Capital, META, STABLECOINS