China Retaliates Against Tariffs: What's Next For Markets, Economy | Gary Shilling

Summary

Gary Shilling joins David Lin to discuss tariff uncertainty after China retaliated against new US tariffs, and how investors should think about the trade war. Shilling remains strategically long the US dollar and Treasuries, expects de-dollarization to reverse in favor of the dollar during trade conflict, and is cautious on gold because of conflicting drivers. He sees a surplus world with slow growth and favors shorting commodities, especially copper, as a 2025 trade.

• Tariff uncertainty is high as Canada and Mexico pause while China retaliates.
• Shilling says US buyer power and excess global supply give the US leverage.
• US consumer and labor conditions still look strong, but tariff-driven inflation could hurt.
• He remains long the US dollar and Treasuries as safe-haven and global-currency plays.
• He dismisses broad BRICS de-dollarization; trade war favors the dollar.
• Gold is a possible haven but has conflicting drivers and no clear direction.
• Energy is less central to development than an educated workforce in his view.
• The Fed is likely on hold, and he favors short commodities, especially copper.