Gary Shilling is positive on India versus China, citing India's favorable demographics (no population limits), orientation toward technology, and a better legal system inherited from the British. He believes India has stronger long-term growth prospects than China.
Gary Shilling agrees that agricultural products, especially soybeans, are the most likely area for a US-China deal during Trump's meeting with Xi. He endorses being long agricultural commodities in anticipation of such an agreement.
Gary Shilling advises being out of stocks or possibly short major stock indices, expecting a 20-30% correction and a deep recession in 2026. He sees little fundamental support for current stock market exuberance.
Gary Shilling recommends being long Treasury bonds as a safe haven in a risk-off environment, expecting a recession and stock market correction. Despite recent uncertainty, he still believes the safe haven effect of treasuries will be very important.