Goldman Warns Oil May Rally to $120 on Ship Disruptions

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 08, 2026 at 13:24  |  2:43  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Samantha Dart — Head of Digital Assets, Bitwise

Summary

Goldman Sachs's Samantha Dart argues crude and refined product markets have diverged: crude balances are softening near term, while refined products, especially diesel, are tight due to refinery damage, low stocks, and no China buffer. She says gasoline and diesel prices can remain elevated through all of next year because refining capacity tightness is not being resolved. Goldman also warns crude could exceed $120 if shipping disruptions continue into 2027.

  • Goldman warns crude could exceed $120 if shipping disruptions continue into 2027.
  • Samantha Dart says crude balances had been softening due to increasing dark crossings and China's import buffer.
  • Refined product balances are tight after refinery damage in the Middle East and Russia and very low product stocks.
  • Diesel is the tightest refined product, with Russia historically a big diesel exporter.
  • Refineries are maximizing diesel yields, indirectly tightening gasoline balances.
  • Gasoline may decline sequentially after driving season but remain above normal into next year.
  • Refining capacity tightness is not being resolved, keeping product premiums elevated.
Ideas
Samantha Dart Head of Digital Assets, Bitwise 0:00
Oil may exceed $120 on disruptions.
Crude oil balances have been softening because increasing dark crossings are improving crude flows and China can swing its crude imports as a buffer depending on price, meaning the crude market is not as tight as refined products.
WTI MED
Samantha Dart Head of Digital Assets, Bitwise 0:00
Refined product margins are elevated.
Refined product balances are tight and margins have hit new highs because strikes and damage to refining capacity in the Middle East and Russia have further constrained already stretched global refining capacity, while product stocks are very low and there is no China buffer.
CRAK HIGH
Samantha Dart Head of Digital Assets, Bitwise 1:36
Diesel is tightest refined product.
Diesel is the tightest refined product market because Russia historically was a large diesel exporter and that supply has been impaired; diesel prices have increased more than gasoline, and refineries have shifted yields toward diesel to capture better economics.
DIESEL HIGH
Samantha Dart Head of Digital Assets, Bitwise 2:10
Gasoline stays elevated into next year.
Gasoline balances are being indirectly tightened as refineries maximize diesel yields, and although gasoline can move lower sequentially after the summer driving season, gasoline and diesel premiums to crude are expected to remain much higher than normal through the whole of next year because refining capacity tightness is not being resolved.
UGA MED
Up Next
7:00
Mohamed El-Erian: I would argue for no hike if I were on the FOMC
CNBC · Sep 08
4:51
AI is breaking up the 'Magnificent Seven', says Plexo's Lo Toney
CNBC · Sep 08
56:23
개인은 14조 팔고 떠났는데 빚투는 늘었다…급락장에서 드러난 수급의 경고 ㅣ 명민준, 서수진, 황유현 팀장 [주린이 구조대]
3PRO TV (삼프로TV) · Sep 08
3:00
Canada Hits US With Tariffs Of Up To 50%
Bloomberg Markets · Sep 08
3:56
China Deploys New Patrols Off Coast of Taiwan
Bloomberg Markets · Sep 08

This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 08, 2026, features Samantha Dart discussing WTI, CRAK, DIESEL, UGA. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Samantha Dart  · Tickers: WTI, CRAK, DIESEL, UGA