Citi's Kaiser: Global bond yields are a risk that have been simmering in background for awhile

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 20, 2026 at 22:47  |  5:09  |  CNBC
Speakers
Stuart Kaiser — Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, Citi

Summary

Stuart Kaiser, Citi Head of Equity Trading Strategy, discusses the market selloff on Fast Money. He says global bond yields, especially Japanese government bond yields and long-end yields, are the top simmering risk and could become more damaging if they spill over. He views the US equity pullback as more like a 5% positioning-driven October selloff than an April buying opportunity, and he is watching the yen carry trade for signs of dislocation.

  • Stuart Kaiser says global bond yields are the market's number-one risk.
  • He notes 30-year yields in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan have been elevated since last July.
  • Rising JGB yields could persist and spill over into global markets.
  • He compares the current US equity selloff to October's roughly 5% pullback, not April's buyable low.
  • He sees today's selloff as positioning-driven, with no tactical oversold signal.
  • Tech and Mag-7 underperformed while IWM and staples outperformed.
  • He is monitoring a potential yen carry trade unwind; currency-side risk has not activated yet.
  • He is cautious going into the overnight because of elevated headline risk into Davos.
Ideas
Stuart Kaiser Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, Citi 0:27
Global bond yields are top risk.
Kaiser says global bond yields are the number-one risk for markets. JGB yields have moved higher, and the broader risk has been simmering since July of last year when 30-year yields in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan all got above 3% for the first time. He warns that JGB yields can be persistent; if those yields rise and spill over or cascade, the risk could become more persistent and damaging to markets. He notes the US 30-year yield was up 8 basis points today while gilts and bunds did not move as much.
30-year JGBs US30Y 30-year UK gilts 30-year German bunds HIGH
Stuart Kaiser Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, Citi 1:16
US equity selloff may be 5% pullback.
Kaiser views the current selloff more like the October tariff-escalation pullback, when US equity markets fell about 5%, rather than the April 'Liberation Day' low that was a great buying opportunity. He sees today as a positioning-driven selloff with no tactical massively oversold signal, and says investors should be a little cautious going into the overnight because he does not see massive dislocations. He also says headline risk is elevated into Davos.
SPY MED
Stuart Kaiser Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, Citi 2:42
Watch yen carry unwind activation risk.
Kaiser distinguishes the current setup from the summer yen carry trade unwind, which operated in the front end of the yield curve. He says the yen vol-to-carry ratio has not blown out, but if yen volatility inflects higher, both the front end and the long end of the curve would operate as risks. For now he finds it comforting that the currency side has not been activated as a risk, but he is watching for dislocation.
FXY MED
Up Next
6:30
The Key Takeaways From Netflix's Q4 Results and Forecast
Bloomberg Markets · Jan 20
4:49
'Fast Money' traders talk stock and bond markets' reaction to renewed trade tensions
CNBC · Jan 20
4:32
Political headlines unlikely to change the positive fundamental trends: Wells Fargo's Christopher
CNBC · Jan 20
2:55
Netflix is still overvalued at these levels, says Morning Star's Matthew Dolgin
CNBC · Jan 20
13:35
Julian Emanuel’s 2026 Market Surprises
Bloomberg Markets · Jan 20

This CNBC video, published January 20, 2026, features Stuart Kaiser discussing 30-year JGBs, US30Y, 30-year UK gilts, 30-year German bunds, SPY, FXY. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Stuart Kaiser  · Tickers: 30-year JGBs, US30Y, 30-year UK gilts, 30-year German bunds, SPY, FXY