Name: Julian Emanuel’s 2026 Market Surprises
Uploaded: 2026-01-20T22:13:27+00:00
Duration: 815 s

Speakers

Julian Emanuel — Evercore ISI

Summary

Julian Emanuel of Evercore ISI discusses his 2026 market surprises with Bloomberg Open Interest. He argues the sell-America trade is overblown, recommends cheap options hedges rather than selling, and sees risks from Greenland/tariffs, Japan yields, and a possible US 10-year yield above 5%. He remains constructive on US equities, AI/tech, and the Nasdaq 100, while warning that small caps and cyclicals are vulnerable to geopolitical growth risk.

Julian Emanuel outlines his 2026 market surprises.
He says the sell-America trade is overblown and the US remains a prime capital destination.
He recommends hedging with inexpensive options rather than selling.
He flags Greenland and tariff risk and owns Euro Stoxx 600 puts.
He sees potential for the US 10-year Treasury yield to trade above 5% in 2026.
He views hyperscaler AI spending as sustainable and expects tech/Nasdaq churn to resolve higher.
He expects US equities to be supported by earnings growth, stimulus, and GDP.
He warns small caps and cyclicals face geopolitical growth risk.

Ideas

Julian Emanuel Evercore ISI 0:00

Sell-America trade overblown; US still favored.

Julian Emanuel argues the sell-America trade is overblown because the US remains the prime destination for global capital and the long-awaited global portfolio reallocation away from US assets is only beginning and moving slowly.

Julian Emanuel Evercore ISI 0:57

Buy cheap hedges, don't sell market.

With VIX under 20 and the MOVE index at multi-year lows, options are extraordinarily inexpensive across asset classes. He recommends using puts and options as hedges rather than selling the underlying market, because the AI-driven equity bull market should ultimately move higher.

Julian Emanuel Evercore ISI 2:27

Euro Stoxx 600 puts hedge Greenland risk.

He would bump up the probability of the US taking control of Greenland, and his trade for that geopolitical and tariff risk is to own Euro Stoxx 600 puts, which have already worked as a hedge.

Julian Emanuel Evercore ISI 2:49

US 10-year yield may exceed 5%.

He sees potential for the US 10-year Treasury yield to trade above 5% in 2026, with surging Japanese yields and geopolitical instability making it harder for markets to digest and adding to asset volatility.

Julian Emanuel Evercore ISI 7:22

AI/tech churn resolves higher.

He thinks hyperscaler AI spending is sustainable relative to free cash flow, the mood in tech and AI has soured enough that the bar is lower, and the Nasdaq 100's sideways churn should ultimately resolve higher.

Julian Emanuel Evercore ISI 9:38

US equities supported by earnings, stimulus.

He expects the broader US equity market to keep moving to the upper right because earnings should grow high single to low double digits, fiscal stimulus is coming before midterms, and GDP growth is forecast at 2.5% with upside risk.

Julian Emanuel Evercore ISI 12:27

Small caps, cyclicals vulnerable to geopolitics.

He cautions that the first reaction in small caps and cyclicals, where there has been buying, is vulnerable because geopolitical risk is a bigger threat to the growth trajectory than to technology; leadership still needs to come from tech.

This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 20, 2026, features Julian Emanuel discussing US assets, VIX, Euro Stoxx 600, US10Y, QQQ, SKYY, AI-SECTOR, SPY, IWM, XLI. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Julian Emanuel · Tickers: US assets, VIX, Euro Stoxx 600, US10Y, QQQ, SKYY, AI-SECTOR, SPY, IWM, XLI

Julian Emanuel’s 2026 Market Surprises

Summary

Ideas

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