The Key Takeaways From Netflix's Q4 Results and Forecast

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 20, 2026 at 22:43  |  6:30  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
David Joyce — Head of Digital Assets, Citi

Summary

David Joyce of Seaport Research Partners discussed Netflix's fourth-quarter results on Bloomberg The Close. He noted the company beat the December quarter but gave a lighter margin guide, sending shares lower after hours. Joyce maintained a buy rating, arguing the selloff is overdone and pointing to advertising growth, international expansion, and content/theatrical strategy. He also addressed the potential Warner Bros. Discovery deal and Netflix's show-me execution phase.

  • Netflix beat Q4 results, but revenue guidance was only slightly better and margin guidance was lighter.
  • Shares traded lower after hours on a sell-the-news reaction.
  • David Joyce has a buy rating and says Netflix stock has fallen too much.
  • Netflix advertising revenue is expected to roughly double in 2026; ad-tier, live programming, and sports strategies are seen working.
  • Long-term subscriber growth is expected internationally, especially in Asia, while the U.S. is mature.
  • Content spending is considered necessary, with the Sony pay-one deal through 2032 supporting content supply.
  • Theatrical and IMAX releases like Narnia could boost engagement, marketing, and awards.
  • The potential Warner Bros. Discovery deal remains uncertain and may take 12 to 18 months to bear out.
Ideas
David Joyce Head of Digital Assets, Citi 0:38
Netflix selloff overdone; long-term growth intact.
Netflix beat the December quarter, but the revenue guide was only a little better while margin guidance was lighter, and the stock is trading lower on a sell-the-news reaction. Joyce maintains a buy rating because he thinks the shares have fallen too much and the selloff is not deserved long term. He sees room for margin expansion as the year plays out, but Netflix is in a show-me state and must deliver ad growth, top-line growth, and margin expansion. He views the planned doubling of advertising revenue in 2026 as positive and consistent with his triangulated estimate that ad revenue was about $1.5 billion in Q4 and $3.1 billion for the year, with ad-tier, live programming, and sports strategies working to lift engagement. He also sees long-term subscriber growth internationally, especially in Asia, with the U.S. mature and Europe/Middle East less penetrated. Content spending is necessary to compete, the Sony pay-one deal through 2032 helps supply, and theatrical/IMAX releases such as Narnia can boost marketing, engagement, awards, and the Warner Bros. Discovery regulatory strategy.
NFLX HIGH
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 20, 2026, features David Joyce discussing NFLX. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: David Joyce  · Tickers: NFLX