How to Invest in an AI-Disrupted Market | Ask Me Anything with Jonathan Wellum
Summary
- The 2026 Macro Landscape: The discussion is set in early 2026. Markets are extremely expensive with the Shiller CAPE ratio at 40x (double the historical average) and the Buffett Indicator at 220%.
- Gold's Structural Bull Run: Gold has rallied from $4,100 to ~$4,900 YTD in 2026. The thesis is driven by global debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 120-150% and structural deficits that require currency devaluation.
- AI Bifurcation: The market is indiscriminately punishing service stocks. The opportunity lies in distinguishing companies with "wide moats" (proprietary data, high switching costs) from those whose business models are genuinely broken by Generative AI.
- Tariff Environment: With tariffs at post-WWII highs (13.5% average), capital is reshoring to the US. Investors must avoid cross-border manufacturing exposure (specifically auto parts) and favor domestic producers.
Trade Ideas
Wellum argues the market has indiscriminately sold off service companies due to AI fears. He is buying ServiceNow (NOW) and likes Thomson Reuters (TRI) and Burford Capital (BUR). Not all service companies will be replaced by LLMs. Companies with proprietary, patent-protected data (Thomson Reuters' Westlaw), high switching costs (ServiceNow), or those requiring massive balance sheets for litigation finance (Burford) have moats that AI cannot easily replicate. LONG. These are value plays where the market has wrongly priced in "AI obsolescence." AI capabilities accelerating faster than expected, breaching these perceived moats.
Wellum explicitly singles out Adobe: "You get a company like maybe Adobe... there's no question that they're going to be under a lot of pressure." Unlike the companies with proprietary data moats, Adobe's creative software model is viewed as highly vulnerable to Generative AI disruption, where newcomers can replicate outputs without the legacy capital intensity. AVOID. The speaker views the business model as fundamentally compromised by AI. Adobe successfully integrates AI to retain dominance (Firefly, etc.), proving the bearish thesis wrong.
Jonathan Wellum
CEO and CIO at Rocklink
Wellum states AI and digitization are driving energy demand growth of 2-3% annually, which utilities are struggling to meet. He explicitly names Brookfield Renewable (BEP), Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP), Cameco (CCJ), Prologis (PLD), Eaton (ETN), and Schneider Electric (SBGSY). Big Tech is bypassing regulated utilities to build their own power plants (nuclear/renewables) to feed data centers. This benefits unregulated power producers (Brookfield), uranium suppliers (Cameco), and the "pick and shovel" providers of electrical componentry (Eaton/Schneider) and data center real estate (Prologis). LONG. These are infrastructure plays on the AI capex cycle that possess hard assets and inflation protection. High valuations in the sector; regulatory pushback on energy consumption.
Jonathan Wellum
CEO and CIO at Rocklink
Wellum notes Gold is trading around $4,900 (in this 2026 timeline) and calls the bull market "structural." He mentions owning Royal Gold (RGLD) which, in this timeline, has acquired Sandstorm Gold. Governments globally are running massive deficits (military spending, social welfare) with debt-to-GDP over 100%. Fiscal discipline is politically impossible, making currency devaluation the only exit path. This creates a perpetual tailwind for hard assets. LONG. However, Wellum advises trimming if position sizing exceeds 25% of the portfolio to manage risk. A sudden return to balanced budgets or aggressive deflationary policies (highly unlikely per speaker).
Jonathan Wellum
CEO and CIO at Rocklink
Wellum discusses the high tariff environment and explicitly says they have "tried to avoid... Magna" and other Canadian auto parts companies. The US administration is aggressively reshoring manufacturing. Cross-border supply chains, particularly in the auto sector, are vulnerable to tariffs and trade friction. Companies manufacturing in Canada for export to the US face margin compression. AVOID. Regulatory and geopolitical headwinds are too strong for cross-border auto suppliers. Tariffs are repealed or specific exemptions are granted for Canadian auto parts.
Up Next
This Wealthion video, published February 18, 2026, features Jonathan Wellum discussing NOW, TRI, BUR, ADBE, BEP, BIP, CCJ, PLD, ETN, SBGSY, GLD, RGLD, MGA. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jonathan Wellum · Tickers: NOW, TRI, BUR, ADBE, BEP, BIP, CCJ, PLD, ETN, SBGSY, GLD, RGLD, MGA