Michael Oliver: Silver Could Explode To $500 As Bond Crisis Triggers Fed Panic
Speakers
Michael Oliver
— Founder, MSA Research
Summary
Michael Oliver argues that a government bond crisis is imminent, which will trigger a massive breakout in silver to $300-$500 and support gold, commodities, and oil. He warns that the Fed's real mandate is defending debt, not inflation or employment, and that silver's multi-month consolidation is ending.
- Michael Oliver discusses a looming government bond crisis and its impact on precious metals.
- Silver is in a six-month congestion zone and expected to break out to $300-$500.
- Gold remains in a secular bull market with potential to reach $9,200.
- Commodities are broadly cheap and in a multi-year uptrend.
- Oil (WTI) is in a bull trend; pullbacks to low $80s are buying opportunities.
- Copper has broken out of a decades-long range and targets $7-$8 or higher.
- The Bloomberg Commodity Index was bought in October and remains bullish.
- The dollar is irrelevant to gold and silver, as it trades against other degrading currencies.
Ideas
Silver breakout to $300-$500 imminent
Silver is vastly undervalued relative to money supply and gold, in a multi-month congestion zone, and technical momentum metrics indicate an imminent breakout to $300-$500 within months, similar to copper and lead breakouts. The current pullback under $70 is a last chance for bears; a move back into the low $70s will trigger a rapid explosive rally.
Gold secular bull, target $9200+
Gold is in a secular bull market that matches money supply degradation, only at a fourfold gain from the 2015 low versus eightfold in prior cycles, and JP Morgan's $9200 target is consistent with historical patterns. Gold is an essential hedge against the bond crisis and will continue to outperform.
Commodities broadly in multi-year uptrend
The entire commodity complex is investable due to being historically cheap relative to money degradation, stocks, and bonds. A multi-year uptrend is underway across subsectors. The Bloomberg Commodity Index was bought at 10650 and remains bullish.
Oil bull trend, buy pullbacks
Oil (WTI) is in a bull trend, with a long-term buy signal at $65. A pullback to the low $80s would be a buying opportunity. Ultimate target is $200-$300 per barrel over years, though not as explosive as silver.
Copper bull trend, target $7-8+
Copper has broken out of a decades-long range and is in a bull trend. Target of $7-$8 or higher is easily achievable, driven by money flows out of bonds and stocks into real assets.
