Name: S&P 500 Rally Faces Earnings Test | Open Interest 8/4/2026
Uploaded: 2026-08-04T17:44:22+00:00
Duration: 5236 s

Speakers

Sam Fazeli — Senior Pharmaceutical Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence

Nimrit Kang — CIO, North American Equities, Santander Asset Management

Mandeep Singh — Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence

Bob Sloan — Founder and Managing Partner, S3 Partners

Indrani — Head of Global Investment Research, FTSE Russell

Ed Ludlow — Co-Host, Bloomberg Technology

Norah Mulinda — Market Reporter, Bloomberg

Red Browne — Bloomberg Reporter

Jeff Mason — White House Correspondent

Amanda Lynam — Chief Credit Strategist, Goldman Sachs

Summary

The S&P 500 nears a record high as earnings from Palantir and Caterpillar show AI demand broadening beyond mega-caps. Oil slides on US-Iran deal hopes. SpaceX faces its first earnings report amid heavy short interest and lockup concerns. Pharma stocks diverge with Merck seen better positioned than Pfizer. Small-cap value is highlighted as a beneficiary of AI broadening.

S&P 500 futures hit all-time high, led by Palantir and Caterpillar earnings.
Palantir's enterprise AI revenue surges, but analyst warns on valuation.
SpaceX first public earnings ahead; lockup overhang and short bets at record.
Merck outperforms Pfizer on patent cliff management capabilities.
Oil falls below $80 on US-Iran talks to reopen Strait of Hormuz.
Equal-weight index rally signals broadening of market gains beyond mega-caps.
Small-cap value seen as beneficiary of AI infrastructure buildout.
McDonald's weak traffic highlights consumer spending pressure.

Ideas

Sam Fazeli Senior Pharmaceutical Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence 4:24

Merck pipeline stronger than Pfizer.

Merck has a stronger drug pipeline and has convinced investors it can manage the upcoming patent expirations better than Pfizer, which relies mainly on cost cutting and recently lost its CFO to Nike. This positions Merck favorably relative to Pfizer.

Sam Fazeli Senior Pharmaceutical Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence 4:24

Merck pipeline stronger than Pfizer.

Nimrit Kang CIO, North American Equities, Santander Asset Management 17:47

Earnings broadening favors equal-weight S&P.

Earnings growth is accelerating outside the megacap AI names, with non-AI companies growing earnings 17% year over year. The equal-weight S&P 500 is hitting all-time highs, reflecting a broad-based rally as AI trickles down into industrials and other sectors.

Nimrit Kang CIO, North American Equities, Santander Asset Management 24:20

SpaceX too early, lockup risk.

SpaceX is the frothiest trade the market has ever seen. The company has no earnings, faces massive capital needs to fund its dreams, and short sellers have already made $8 billion. The bet is that SpaceX will run out of money before its dreams come true, and with shorts in profit, they are likely to hold their positions.

Mandeep Singh Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence 32:50

Palantir overvalued, growth will normalize.

Palantir trades at extremely rich multiples and carries the risk that its revenue growth will eventually normalize. The company has a concentrated customer base and faces the threat that clients eventually question why they should pay a premium when open-source LLMs exist. The current strong numbers may not be sustainable.

Indrani Head of Global Investment Research, FTSE Russell 48:14

Small-cap value benefits from AI broadening.

The AI theme is broadening beyond large caps into smaller companies that are helping out in the AI buildout, such as network connectivity and data centers. This is driving a small-cap value rally that likely has more room to run.

S&P 500 Rally Faces Earnings Test | Open Interest 8/4/2026

Summary

Ideas

Up Next