Calls
3
Sam Fazeli
Senior Pharmaceutical Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Win Rate
100.0%
return
+16.9%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Feb 23
$1058.56
+11.4%
Novo Nordisk's (NVO) next-gen obesity shot (CagriSema) showed 20% weight loss compared to 23% for Eli Lilly's (LLY) drug in a head-to-head trial. NVO stock plunged 15.3% while LLY surged 3.5%. The obesity duopoly is fracturing. Novo "rolled the dice" on a head-to-head comparison and lost, proving their next-gen pipeline is inferior to Lilly's. This erodes Novo's future growth premium (30% of future revenue was tied to this) and cements Lilly as the clinical leader. LONG LLY (Best in Class) / SHORT NVO (Broken Growth Thesis). Regulatory intervention on drug pricing or unexpected side effects in Lilly's broader rollout.
Novo Nordisk's (NVO) next-gen obesity shot (CagriSema) showed 20% weight loss compared to 23% for Eli Lilly's (LLY) drug in a head-to-head trial. NVO stock plunged 15.3% while LLY surged 3.5%. The obesity duopoly is fracturing. Novo "rolled the dice" on a head-to-head comparison and lost, proving their next-gen pipeline is inferior to Lilly's. This erodes Novo's future growth premium (30% of future revenue was tied to this) and cements Lilly as the clinical leader. LONG LLY (Best in Class) / SHORT NVO (Broken Growth Thesis). Regulatory intervention on drug pricing or unexpected side effects in Lilly's broader rollout.
GLP-1 / Obesity
Long
Jun 22
$226.75
+12.2%
AbbVie's acquisition of Apogee Therapeutics adds a pipeline drug for atopic dermatitis (eczema) with convenient every-3-to-6-month dosing, enhancing patient compliance. This strengthens AbbVie's already dominant immunology franchise (Skyrizi, Rinvoq) forecast to generate $50-60 billion in revenue, extending growth beyond 2030 and reinforcing its competitive position against Sanofi's Dupixent.
Pharma & Biotech
Long
Feb 23
$39.63
+27.0%
Novo Nordisk's (NVO) next-gen obesity shot (CagriSema) showed 20% weight loss compared to 23% for Eli Lilly's (LLY) drug in a head-to-head trial. NVO stock plunged 15.3% while LLY surged 3.5%. The obesity duopoly is fracturing. Novo "rolled the dice" on a head-to-head comparison and lost, proving their next-gen pipeline is inferior to Lilly's. This erodes Novo's future growth premium (30% of future revenue was tied to this) and cements Lilly as the clinical leader. LONG LLY (Best in Class) / SHORT NVO (Broken Growth Thesis). Regulatory intervention on drug pricing or unexpected side effects in Lilly's broader rollout.
Novo Nordisk's (NVO) next-gen obesity shot (CagriSema) showed 20% weight loss compared to 23% for Eli Lilly's (LLY) drug in a head-to-head trial. NVO stock plunged 15.3% while LLY surged 3.5%. The obesity duopoly is fracturing. Novo "rolled the dice" on a head-to-head comparison and lost, proving their next-gen pipeline is inferior to Lilly's. This erodes Novo's future growth premium (30% of future revenue was tied to this) and cements Lilly as the clinical leader. LONG LLY (Best in Class) / SHORT NVO (Broken Growth Thesis). Regulatory intervention on drug pricing or unexpected side effects in Lilly's broader rollout.
GLP-1 / Obesity
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Sam Fazeli has 3 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 3 tickers since February 2026. Most covered: LLY, ABBV, NVO.
