Calls
5
#450
Alpha Score 65.2
Sam Fazeli
Senior Pharmaceutical Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Win Rate
80.0%
return
+11.2%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Feb 23
$1058.56
+9.7%
Novo Nordisk's (NVO) next-gen obesity shot (CagriSema) showed 20% weight loss compared to 23% for Eli Lilly's (LLY) drug in a head-to-head trial. NVO stock plunged 15.3% while LLY surged 3.5%. The obesity duopoly is fracturing. Novo "rolled the dice" on a head-to-head comparison and lost, proving their next-gen pipeline is inferior to Lilly's. This erodes Novo's future growth premium (30% of future revenue was tied to this) and cements Lilly as the clinical leader. LONG LLY (Best in Class) / SHORT NVO (Broken Growth Thesis). Regulatory intervention on drug pricing or unexpected side effects in Lilly's broader rollout.
Novo Nordisk's (NVO) next-gen obesity shot (CagriSema) showed 20% weight loss compared to 23% for Eli Lilly's (LLY) drug in a head-to-head trial. NVO stock plunged 15.3% while LLY surged 3.5%. The obesity duopoly is fracturing. Novo "rolled the dice" on a head-to-head comparison and lost, proving their next-gen pipeline is inferior to Lilly's. This erodes Novo's future growth premium (30% of future revenue was tied to this) and cements Lilly as the clinical leader. LONG LLY (Best in Class) / SHORT NVO (Broken Growth Thesis). Regulatory intervention on drug pricing or unexpected side effects in Lilly's broader rollout.
GLP-1 / Obesity
Long
Aug 04
$128.77
+18.0%
Merck has a stronger drug pipeline and has convinced investors it can manage the upcoming patent expirations better than Pfizer, which relies mainly on cost cutting and recently lost its CFO to Nike. This positions Merck favorably relative to Pfizer.
Pharma & Biotech
Long
Jun 22
$226.75
+15.4%
AbbVie's acquisition of Apogee Therapeutics adds a pipeline drug for atopic dermatitis (eczema) with convenient every-3-to-6-month dosing, enhancing patient compliance. This strengthens AbbVie's already dominant immunology franchise (Skyrizi, Rinvoq) forecast to generate $50-60 billion in revenue, extending growth beyond 2030 and reinforcing its competitive position against Sanofi's Dupixent.
Pharma & Biotech
Short
Aug 05
$44.60
-4.8%
Eli Lilly is pulling ahead in the obesity-drug race due to a stronger pipeline (oral orforglipron), better marketing, and raised guidance, while Novo Nordisk's pipeline disappoints and its growth catalysts appear weaker, making the market favor Lilly over Novo.
GLP-1 / Obesity
Long
Feb 23
$39.63
+18.0%
Novo Nordisk's (NVO) next-gen obesity shot (CagriSema) showed 20% weight loss compared to 23% for Eli Lilly's (LLY) drug in a head-to-head trial. NVO stock plunged 15.3% while LLY surged 3.5%. The obesity duopoly is fracturing. Novo "rolled the dice" on a head-to-head comparison and lost, proving their next-gen pipeline is inferior to Lilly's. This erodes Novo's future growth premium (30% of future revenue was tied to this) and cements Lilly as the clinical leader. LONG LLY (Best in Class) / SHORT NVO (Broken Growth Thesis). Regulatory intervention on drug pricing or unexpected side effects in Lilly's broader rollout.
Novo Nordisk's (NVO) next-gen obesity shot (CagriSema) showed 20% weight loss compared to 23% for Eli Lilly's (LLY) drug in a head-to-head trial. NVO stock plunged 15.3% while LLY surged 3.5%. The obesity duopoly is fracturing. Novo "rolled the dice" on a head-to-head comparison and lost, proving their next-gen pipeline is inferior to Lilly's. This erodes Novo's future growth premium (30% of future revenue was tied to this) and cements Lilly as the clinical leader. LONG LLY (Best in Class) / SHORT NVO (Broken Growth Thesis). Regulatory intervention on drug pricing or unexpected side effects in Lilly's broader rollout.
GLP-1 / Obesity
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Sam Fazeli has 5 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 4 tickers since February 2026. Ranked #450 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: LLY, MRK, ABBV.
