Ideas
Long-end Treasury rally comes later.
In an easing cycle, the short end usually falls first while the long end stays sticky and the curve steepens. Later, when rates stay low, carry-seeking eventually drives an intense long-end rally that often becomes overdone. This playbook suggests watching for a later long-end Treasury rally rather than expecting overeasy Fed policy to immediately crush the long end.
Uranium miners benefit from energy demand.
Alex has been constructive on uranium mining and remains so, as growing energy demand and nuclear power buildout support the fuel and mining complex. The broader energy bottleneck reinforces the thesis.
Nuclear right long term, timeline uncertain.
Nuclear is the right long-term answer for AI power demand and the DOE is creating an alternative approval path that bypasses the NRC for prototypes, but gigawatt-scale advanced reactor designs still take years and cost more than hyperscalers hope.
Natural gas is interim AI power solution.
AI-driven electricity demand and the long lead time and cost overruns of nuclear mean natural gas-fired power plants are the likely interim solution. The biggest bottleneck is gas turbines, with roughly six-year order backlogs, so turbine manufacturing and gas-fired generation capacity should require a major buildout.
Energy buildout benefits from AI demand.
Compute growth will make energy the key bottleneck for AI and civilization, so incremental energy sources should rise in price. Alex is torn on which sources win, but both nuclear and natural gas buildout could work as energy demand outruns supply.
Silver may have completed full cycle.
Silver ran far beyond Alex's conservative targets into early 2026 and then suffered a violent liquidation. It may have completed its full multi-year cycle, but because it is still trying to decide direction, he treats it as a watch item rather than a fresh long.
Platinum remains early in its cycle.
Precious metals cycles are not simultaneous. Gold and silver have already run much further, while platinum was dormant longer, has only recently begun to catch up, and is still early in its cycle. Store-of-value and jewelry demand mean it is not purely an auto or industrial play.
Yen set for upside inflection.
Japan may be at a macro inflection: high nominal and real rates, a steep curve, pro-growth policy, strong equities, and an extremely weak yen. If capital returns to JGBs or Japanese assets, or if the BOJ tightens, the yen should strengthen after a relentless weakening trend.
JGB curve offers positive asymmetry.
Japan offers a steep JGB curve with low real rates. If the BOJ does not tighten, investors earn roll-down and carry on the long end; if it does tighten, the curve should flatten and the long end should still be fine while the yen strengthens.
Buy yen via high-delta call options.
Patrick wants long yen exposure without picking the exact bottom. He favors a high-delta call on September 2026 yen futures: it gives convex participation if BOJ tightening or yen-funded carry unwind drives a fast move higher, while limiting risk to the premium paid.
Fade stocks, favor commodities bull.
Erik still thinks the early-2020s stock bull market is late-stage or winding down, while the late-2020s commodity bull market is still in its infancy. This relative allocation favors commodities over US equities.
Fade stocks, favor commodities bull.
Erik still thinks the early-2020s stock bull market is late-stage or winding down, while the late-2020s commodity bull market is still in its infancy. This relative allocation favors commodities over US equities.
Nasdaq and software remain weak.
The Nasdaq 100 broke below its 50-day moving average and failed to reclaim it, driven by software weakness. That leaves software and the Nasdaq vulnerable while the broader indices depend on other leadership.
Semiconductors show relative strength versus software.
Semiconductors continue to do very well and are back at 52-week highs, with AI-driven indices also making fresh highs. This relative strength contrasts with weak software and makes semis a leadership group.
S&P needs MAG7 participation.
For the S&P 500 to move higher, the Magnificent 7 need to turn up. Without that participation, the market is heavy, rallies are short-lived, and overhead resistance will be difficult to overcome.
Dollar bearish but support may consolidate.
Erik remains bearish on the dollar index; the rally has stalled and has not made new lows but is near a 50% retracement. He acknowledges multi-year support near 95 could cause weeks-to-months of consolidation before the next directional move.
Dollar downtrend intact below 96.50.
The dollar's rally attempt rejected Fibonacci levels and the 50-day moving average, leaving the prevailing downtrend as the path of least resistance. A break below 96.50 opens downside toward 95 or 94 on DXY.
Favor WTI calendar spread over outright.
Intermediate and long-term oil fundamentals are bullish and time spreads are strengthening into modest backwardation, but short-term politics could suppress flat price into the midterms. Erik therefore favors the long CLZ6Z7 time spread over an outright long.
Crude oil short-term bull trend intact.
Crude price action remains surprisingly accumulative; dips are bought and price holds above the 50-day moving average at multi-month highs. Patrick sees a new short-term bull trend and looks for upside back to 2025 highs.
Gold bull market remains intact long term.
Erik remains bullish gold and does not think the bull market is over, though the rally has stalled and may need consolidation. A solid daily and weekly close above 5166 would confirm the correction low; absent that, gold may trade 4500-5000 for weeks or months.
Gold consolidating before later bull continuation.
After an extraordinary bull run and steep correction, gold is likely entering a consolidation and fair-value phase. The first low near 4500 may act as major support, but short-term rallies are likely to be faded until a later bull continuation.
Uranium bulls remain in command.
Despite turbulence, uranium dropped to the 50-day moving average and retracement zones and bounced. Bulls remain in command of the trend, so Patrick gives them the benefit of the doubt for higher prices.
Copper likely consolidating, not overly bearish.
Copper has consolidated, and pullbacks have held along the 50-day moving average. Patrick is not looking for another big upside rip but is not overly bearish; the likely path is consolidation and backfilling while establishing a new fair value zone.
Watch 10-year yields for decline resumption.
After a quiet range, the 10-year yield has made a material move lower from around 4.30%. Patrick is watching whether the decline in yields resumes and could see yields back at 4%, which would make bonds more interesting.
This Macro Voices video, published February 12, 2026,
features Alex Gurevich, Erik Townsend, Patrick Ceresna
discussing US long-end Treasuries, URA, Natural gas-fired power generation, Gas turbine manufacturers, XLE, SILVER, PPLT, FXY, Japanese government bonds, Japanese yen 63 call option on September 2026 futures, SPY, DBC, QQQ, IGV, SMH, MAGS, US Dollar Index (DXY), CLZ6Z7 time spread, WTI, GLD, COPPER, IEF.
24 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Alex Gurevich,
Erik Townsend,
Patrick Ceresna
· Tickers:
US long-end Treasuries,
URA,
Natural gas-fired power generation,
Gas turbine manufacturers,
XLE,
SILVER,
PPLT,
FXY,
Japanese government bonds,
Japanese yen 63 call option on September 2026 futures,
SPY,
DBC,
QQQ,
IGV,
SMH,
MAGS,
US Dollar Index (DXY),
CLZ6Z7 time spread,
WTI,
GLD,
COPPER,
IEF
