Japan Snap Election; GOP Fed Backlash; Trump's Iran Tariff | Horizons Middle East & Africa 1/13/2025

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 13, 2026 at 08:26  |  45:52  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Joumanna Bercetche — Anchor, Bloomberg
Brian — Senior Editor in Tokyo
Alexandre Tavazzi — Head of CIO Office and Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management
Daan Struyven — Head of Oil Research, Goldman Sachs
William Roebuck — Executive Vice President, Arab Gulf States Institute; Former US Ambassador to Bahrain
Jennifer Zabasajja — Chief Africa Correspondent, Bloomberg

Summary

The program covered Japan's reported plan for a snap election and its market impact, Washington's backlash over the DOJ probe into Fed Chair Powell, and Trump's threat of 25% tariffs on countries doing business with Iran. Guests discussed 2026 market positioning, including U.S. assets, EM currencies, bonds, precious metals and AI profitability, while Goldman's oil analyst laid out a bearish base case and South Africa's prime-rate review was examined. Bank earnings and UBS leadership/regulatory news were also in focus.

  • Japan snap-election reports lifted Japanese stocks and weakened the yen, with fiscal stimulus also pressuring JGBs.
  • Republican senators and Fed officials pushed back on the DOJ probe into Powell, raising questions about Fed appointments.
  • Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, with China the key target.
  • Alexandre Tavazzi favored U.S. assets over the dollar, liked EM currencies, preferred non-U.S. bonds, and was bullish precious metals.
  • He flagged AI monetization and Mag 7 profitability as a key question for 2026.
  • Daan Struyven kept a bearish oil base case, citing a 2.3 million bpd surplus and fading geopolitical spikes.
  • South Africa's central bank is reviewing its prime lending rate, with mixed implications for borrowers, banks, and growth.
  • Bank earnings and UBS regulatory/leadership news were also discussed.
Ideas
Joumanna Bercetche Anchor, Bloomberg 2:54
Credit card cap pressures bank margins
President Trump's proposed cap on credit card interest rates would compress bank margins and has already weighed on bank stocks; it will be a key headwind to watch during the upcoming earnings season.
KBE MED
Brian Senior Editor in Tokyo 6:00
Snap election lifts stocks, sinks yen, JGBs
Prime Minister Takaichi's planned snap election is expected to reinforce her pro-stimulus fiscal policy, including massive spending and the largest budget ever; Japanese stocks are rallying on that, while Japanese government bonds and the yen are under pressure from the fiscal expansion.
FXY Japanese government bonds HIGH
Brian Senior Editor in Tokyo 6:00
Snap election lifts stocks, sinks yen, JGBs
Prime Minister Takaichi's planned snap election is expected to reinforce her pro-stimulus fiscal policy, including massive spending and the largest budget ever; Japanese stocks are rallying on that, while Japanese government bonds and the yen are under pressure from the fiscal expansion.
EWJ HIGH
Alexandre Tavazzi Head of CIO Office and Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management 11:40
Avoid U.S. bonds, prefer non-U.S. bonds
Sticky inflation and potential Fed rate cuts could put U.S. bonds under pressure, so he advises caution on the bond side and looking to other bond markets outside the U.S.
U.S. bonds MED
Alexandre Tavazzi Head of CIO Office and Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management 11:40
Avoid U.S. bonds, prefer non-U.S. bonds
Sticky inflation and potential Fed rate cuts could put U.S. bonds under pressure, so he advises caution on the bond side and looking to other bond markets outside the U.S.
BNDX MED
Alexandre Tavazzi Head of CIO Office and Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management 12:19
Dovish Fed lifts U.S. assets, sinks dollar
Pressure on the Fed that leads to lower rates should favor U.S. assets, but the dollar is the ultimate victim of easier monetary policy and relative market performance.
SPY MED
Alexandre Tavazzi Head of CIO Office and Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management 12:19
Dovish Fed lifts U.S. assets, sinks dollar
Pressure on the Fed that leads to lower rates should favor U.S. assets, but the dollar is the ultimate victim of easier monetary policy and relative market performance.
UUP MED
Alexandre Tavazzi Head of CIO Office and Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management 12:52
EM currencies attractive on yield, leverage
Emerging-market currencies are very interesting because their yields are attractive and EM companies are less levered than U.S. companies, making them among the most attractive currencies.
EMLC MED
Alexandre Tavazzi Head of CIO Office and Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management 14:43
Bid precious metals on geopolitical hedges
Geopolitical uncertainty supports portfolio diversification and optionality, and the play is to bid precious metals; he notes gold could reach price targets quickly, with silver part of the same theme.
GLD SILVER HIGH
Alexandre Tavazzi Head of CIO Office and Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management 15:18
AI monetization doubts cloud Mag 7
Only two Magnificent 7 names outperformed last year, and investors are watching credit markets for evidence that AI infrastructure can be monetized and the debt raised in 2025 can be serviced; profitability remains a question mark.
MAGS MED
Daan Struyven Head of Oil Research, Goldman Sachs 29:06
Oil oversupplied; prices trend lower
The oil market remains oversupplied with a projected 2.3 million bpd surplus, and history shows geopolitical spikes fade in oversupplied markets; his base case is oil prices trending down, with the market seen at $56 this year.
WTI HIGH
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 13, 2026, features Joumanna Bercetche, Brian, Alexandre Tavazzi, Daan Struyven discussing KBE, FXY, Japanese government bonds, EWJ, U.S. bonds, BNDX, SPY, UUP, EMLC, GLD, SILVER, MAGS, WTI. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Joumanna Bercetche, Brian, Alexandre Tavazzi, Daan Struyven  · Tickers: KBE, FXY, Japanese government bonds, EWJ, U.S. bonds, BNDX, SPY, UUP, EMLC, GLD, SILVER, MAGS, WTI