Ideas
TCS sees improving demand and AI revenue.
Krithivasan says demand and client spending are improving, decision cycles are getting better, and TCS should see good demand into 2026. He is comfortable maintaining industry-leading margins around 26% despite AI/cloud investment, sees annualized AI revenue of $1.8 billion improving quarter-on-quarter with material contribution within a year, and is pursuing small acquisitions to add capabilities at speed.
HCLTech bookings, megadeal support revenue growth.
Vijayakumar calls HCLTech's quarter strong, with 4.2% sequential growth, margin expansion, bookings up 14.5% year-on-year and 17% quarter-on-quarter, and a roughly $500 million AI-led megadeal with a global retailer. He raised revenue guidance, expects more large deals, has reduced H-1B dependence, and says rupee weakness and rising tech spend support the business.
Reduce equity risk after record exposure.
Costello warns that U.S. households and institutional clients have record equity exposure while valuations are elevated and concentration in a handful of stocks is high. He recommends rebalancing and diversifying portfolios to take some equity risk off the table.
Underweight dollar on Fed interference risk.
Costello says Trump administration pressure on the Fed is counterproductive for lower rates and raises a risk premium for government interference. He sees the U.S. dollar as expensive and says Cambridge Associates is underweight the dollar, favoring non-U.S. markets as a way to diversify.
Non-U.S. markets more attractive than U.S.
Costello argues U.S. assets are expensive while non-U.S. assets are less expensive, creating a natural rotation from U.S. markets. He says non-U.S. markets are more attractive and help diversify portfolios.
Credit spreads too tight for defense.
Costello is concerned about public credit because spreads are almost back to record lows and there is not much defense left in the credit space. He says Cambridge does not want too much fixed income and prefers other diversifiers.
Hedge funds attractive for diversification and outperformance.
Given overvaluation in equities and credit markets, Costello thinks hedge funds are an interesting place to reallocate this year. He says they can diversify portfolios and generate returns without being overly reliant on market direction or credit spreads.
Small-cap stocks are more attractive.
Costello says small-cap stocks are more attractive and expects them to be part of a more diversified portfolio this year.
AI gains should broaden beyond mega-caps.
Costello says the AI theme is concentrated in a handful of large U.S. tech stocks plus some Korean and Taiwanese players. If AI is successful, gains should broaden across the economy, so investors should position for companies that harness AI to improve business models or disrupt industries.
Private markets access AI beneficiaries.
Costello says some of the companies best positioned to harness AI are private, making private equity growth and venture capital attractive ways to play the theme.
Private markets access AI beneficiaries.
Costello says China venture capital is a less crowded space with significant innovation and valuations that have come down, so investors with appetite to dive back in may be rewarded.
Grid modernization offers long-term energy opportunity.
Costello says the energy grid needs major modernization and efficiency upgrades, driven by electrification and electric vehicles, and sees energy plays as interesting from a long-term perspective.
Japan governance best played via buyouts.
Costello likes Japanese assets but says the real story is corporate governance and rising M&A, best played through Japanese buyouts and private strategies. He is less interested in large-cap Japanese stocks and the index because they are tied to the yen and yen strength can hurt them.
Japan governance best played via buyouts.
Costello likes Japanese assets but says the real story is corporate governance and rising M&A, best played through Japanese buyouts and private strategies. He is less interested in large-cap Japanese stocks and the index because they are tied to the yen and yen strength can hurt them.
China rally needs earnings, deflation confirmation.
Costello says the key to a sustainable Chinese equity rally is earnings growth, which depends on deflationary pressures easing. He wants more confirmation that deflation is easing and earnings are rising; otherwise Chinese equities could face headwinds.
China healthcare IPOs look interesting.
Costello points to Chinese healthcare as an interesting area that has been on a tear, with many IPOs in the space.
Watch renminbi strength as confidence signal.
Costello highlights the renminbi strengthening through 7 and on a trade-weighted basis as a sign Chinese authorities are comfortable with a stronger currency and a potential game change for China. He says it needs to be monitored carefully as a confidence signal.
Trita Parsi
Executive Vice President, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
82:50
Hormuz risk could disrupt oil markets.
Parsi says if Iran retaliates against a U.S. strike by targeting the Strait of Hormuz, shipping and insurance costs could become too high for vessels to transit. Even without hitting ships, that could cause significant disruption to oil markets.
China secular growth and innovation continue.
Ermotti says investor interest in China returned strongly last year and should continue, driven by secular support from growth, innovation, technology, and biotech. He sees mainland and Hong Kong market momentum, IPOs, and deal activity supporting the region.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 13, 2026,
features K. Krithivasan, C Vijayakumar, Aaron Costello, Trita Parsi, Sergio Ermotti
discussing TCS, HCLTECH, SPY, UUP, Non-U.S. equities, Public Credit, Hedge funds, IWM, AI-SECTOR, PSP, Venture Capital, GRID, Japanese buyouts, EWJ, FXI, KURE, Chinese yuan (CNY), WTI, China technology/biotech.
19 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
K. Krithivasan,
C Vijayakumar,
Aaron Costello,
Trita Parsi,
Sergio Ermotti
· Tickers:
TCS,
HCLTECH,
SPY,
UUP,
Non-U.S. equities,
Public Credit,
Hedge funds,
IWM,
AI-SECTOR,
PSP,
Venture Capital,
GRID,
Japanese buyouts,
EWJ,
FXI,
KURE,
Chinese yuan (CNY),
WTI,
China technology/biotech
