Ideas
US equities expensive; leadership may end
After 15 years of US leadership, the relative trend of the S&P 500 versus MSCI ACWI has broken; US valuations are extremely stretched on forward P/E, Buffett-indicator and historical deviation measures, foreign/institutional positioning is crowded, and a small earnings disappointment could trigger a severe correction. He does not call a structural bear market unless the S&P 500 loses about 4500, but he prefers alternatives outside the US and sees risk of rejection/rotation lower from resistance.
Europe set to outperform US equities
The Euro Stoxx 600 trades at about a 30% discount to the S&P 500, and its relative chart versus the S&P has broken the long US-favoring trend, with a possible distribution/double-top setup in the ratio. This supports rotation into Europe, and he expects Europe to outperform the US in coming weeks; the absolute European chart is healthy, with rising lows and no obvious top, although a break of support near 990 on the ratio would activate a larger double-top move toward Euro Stoxx.
Mintos loans for yield and diversification
He personally invests in loans through Mintos, reporting about 9.6% return since September versus a historical ~10%, as a way to diversify away from concentrated equity risk. He cites platform regulation, diversification across lenders/countries, automated portfolios, buyback obligations after 60 days late, low minimums and liquidity options.
IBEX bullish; buy pullback near 13,000
The Spanish IBEX 35 was the best index in 2025 and has broken its multi-year relative downtrend versus the S&P 500, now printing higher highs and higher lows, so it should keep outperforming while that structure holds. He remains positive on the absolute IBEX too, but for a safer long he wants a deeper correction toward roughly 13,000 before building positions for the next impulse.
Watch Nikkei breakout versus S&P 500
The Nikkei 225 relative to the S&P 500 is near a potential double-bottom trigger around 790; if it breaks, Japan could strongly outperform the US. Japanese equities are also supported by continued stimulus under the new prime minister, but foreign investors must account for yen depreciation and possible BOJ intervention eroding returns.
China relative recovery may continue
China's relative chart versus the S&P 500 has broken its accelerated US-favoring downtrend and is building higher highs/lows; he sees China in a recovery process that could approach the 2.0 relative ratio, after a more than 50% relative outperformance from 2024 lows to 2025 highs, though recent weeks were less favorable.
Global equities overbought; correction risk elevated
MSCI ACWI remains in a rising trend with higher lows and highs, but it is extremely overbought near the top of its channel and has little apparent upside before a correction; a move to the channel base could mean a 30%+ decline without changing the long-term trend, a risk for late buyers.
Emerging markets breakout could yield 70%
EEM has spent years in a large symmetric triangle/range since 2008 and is now attacking the upper boundary; a confirmed breakout could offer about 70% upside. Emerging-market currencies such as the Colombian peso, Mexican peso and Brazilian real are appreciating, adding a currency tailwind, making this one of the most attractive opportunities if the breakout occurs.
Watch HSTI after prior exit
He previously selected and invested in HSTI, exited near the descending trendline after a roughly 100% gain, and is no longer exposed; however, if emerging markets break their triangle, China could break its ceiling too, opening a much more positive scenario. The ascending channel and support are still alive but overbought, so he monitors it closely rather than holding it now.
This Pablo Gil video, published January 18, 2026,
features Pablo Gil
discussing SPY, Euro Stoxx 600, Mintos loans, IBEX, N225, FXI, ACWI, EEM, HSTI.
9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Pablo Gil
· Tickers:
SPY,
Euro Stoxx 600,
Mintos loans,
IBEX,
N225,
FXI,
ACWI,
EEM,
HSTI
