The Market Still Misunderstands Bitcoin’s 2026 Future w/ Matt Hougan & Ryan Rasmussen

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 18, 2026 at 15:19  |  12:01  |  Milk Road Daily
Speakers
Ryan Rasmussen — Head of Research, Bitwise
Matt Hougan — CIO, Bitwise Asset Management
Kyle Reidhead — Head of Research, Milk Road

Summary

Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen of Bitwise discuss their 2026 crypto predictions. They argue Bitcoin can break its four-year cycle and set new all-time highs, that Bitcoin is already less volatile than Nvidia, and that ETF demand will exceed new supply across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The clip also frames crypto's mainstream adoption through stablecoins, tokenization, and prediction markets.

  • Bitwise expects Bitcoin to break the four-year cycle and set new all-time highs in 2026.
  • Ryan Rasmussen says leverage has been washed out, regulation is clearer, and institutional/ETF demand should support Bitcoin.
  • Matt Hougan argues Bitcoin is already less volatile than Nvidia and that AI carries more risk than Bitcoin in 2026.
  • Ryan Rasmussen predicts ETFs will purchase more than 100% of new Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana supply.
  • The hosts discuss crypto's mainstream cycle, including stablecoins, tokenization, and prediction markets.
  • Prediction number four, crypto equities outperforming tech equities, is mentioned but not developed in this clip.
Ideas
Ryan Rasmussen Head of Research, Bitwise 0:14
Bitcoin breaks cycle, new highs 2026
The four-year Bitcoin cycle is likely ending because the causes of past year-four drawdowns are fading: leverage was washed out in October and is relatively low, regulatory clarity reduces the risk of FTX/Mt. Gox-style blowups, and the halving has a diminishing supply impact. At the same time, a constant institutional bid, regulatory clarity/adoption, new ETF launches, favorable fiscal policy, and the debasement trade should push Bitcoin higher in 2026, making it an up year that sets new all-time highs.
BTC HIGH
Ryan Rasmussen Head of Research, Bitwise 5:08
Crypto mainstreams via stablecoins, tokenization
Crypto is entering a mainstream cycle where stablecoins, tokenization, and prediction markets become ubiquitous across consumers, corporations, and financial institutions. Evidence includes SoFi launching a stablecoin, Robinhood going all-in on Polymarket, Larry Fink and Paul Atkins discussing tokenization, Scott Bessent and Fed governors discussing stablecoins, and banks/brokerages likely offering crypto, stablecoins, and DeFi yield. This mainstreamification should broaden crypto adoption and usage.
STABLECOINS Tokenization PREDICTION MARKETS MED
Matt Hougan CIO, Bitwise Asset Management 7:17
Bitcoin calmer than Nvidia; AI riskier
Bitcoin is already calmer than Nvidia and is no longer orders-of-magnitude more volatile than stocks; investors are anchored to an outdated volatility view. Bitcoin has been derisked through regulatory progress, better liquidity, ETF adoption, and technical improvements. In 2026, AI has more risk than Bitcoin because of AI bubble concerns, circular revenue, political pushback, and Oracle CDS spikes, while Bitcoin benefits from looser liquidity, the debasement trade, and institutional adoption. Matt remains bullish on AI but sees more risk in that ecosystem than in Bitcoin.
BTC HIGH
Matt Hougan CIO, Bitwise Asset Management 7:17
Bitcoin calmer than Nvidia; AI riskier
Bitcoin is already calmer than Nvidia and is no longer orders-of-magnitude more volatile than stocks; investors are anchored to an outdated volatility view. Bitcoin has been derisked through regulatory progress, better liquidity, ETF adoption, and technical improvements. In 2026, AI has more risk than Bitcoin because of AI bubble concerns, circular revenue, political pushback, and Oracle CDS spikes, while Bitcoin benefits from looser liquidity, the debasement trade, and institutional adoption. Matt remains bullish on AI but sees more risk in that ecosystem than in Bitcoin.
NVDA HIGH
Ryan Rasmussen Head of Research, Bitwise 10:09
ETF demand exceeds new crypto supply
Crypto prices are set by supply and demand, and institutional demand should continue to outpace new supply for years. ETFs have already bought roughly 2x the new Bitcoin supply since January 2024, while Bitcoin rose about 95%. Bitwise's institutional meetings indicate investors are allocating more and planning to allocate more to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs, which should drive prices higher.
ETH SOL HIGH
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This Milk Road Daily video, published January 18, 2026, features Ryan Rasmussen, Matt Hougan discussing BTC, STABLECOINS, Tokenization, PREDICTION MARKETS, NVDA, ETH, SOL. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ryan Rasmussen, Matt Hougan  · Tickers: BTC, STABLECOINS, Tokenization, PREDICTION MARKETS, NVDA, ETH, SOL