Name: Doors are open for stacks of investment to flow into U.S. chip industry: Piper Sandler's Harsh Kumar
Uploaded: 2026-01-15T21:37:30+00:00
Duration: 281 s

Speakers

Harsh Kumar — Analyst, Piper Sandler

Summary

Harsh Kumar of Piper Sandler discusses the Taiwan trade deal and $500 billion US semiconductor investment package, saying it formalizes and protects US-bound chip investment. He sees TSMC as the central foundry for the AI complex and most large chip companies, citing NVIDIA's sold-out 2026 capacity and Broadcom's AI growth outlook. He also highlights a recovery in analog semiconductors tied to industrial and automotive demand, with potential housing-related demand if rates fall.

Taiwan trade deal formalizes $250B direct investment and $250B credit line for US chip industry.
Harsh Kumar says the deal reduces geopolitical risk and opens doors for Korean and Taiwanese investment.
TSMC is described as the key supplier for most large chip companies and the AI complex.
NVIDIA has sold out 2026 capacity and is taking orders for 2027.
Broadcom expects AI revenue growth of 150% in 2026 and 60% in 2027.
Analog semiconductors are recovering, driven by industrial and automotive demand.
Lower rates could boost home sales, remodeling, and appliance-related semiconductor demand.
Harsh Kumar expects TSMC to raise capex to meet pent-up demand.

Ideas

Harsh Kumar Analyst, Piper Sandler 0:58

Trade deal unlocks US chip investment.

The Taiwan trade deal formalizes and legitimizes US-bound semiconductor investment and provides US government protection, reducing geopolitical risk and opening the door for large amounts of Taiwanese and Korean investment into the US chip industry. Harsh Kumar says this is great for the US semiconductor business and helps the US return to leadership in chips, with shortages also driving the investment wave.

Harsh Kumar Analyst, Piper Sandler 1:51

TSMC is central chip supplier.

TSMC is the stop for all large US chip companies and the entire AI complex, being the single most reliable semiconductor supply producer. Harsh Kumar says TSMC is under pressure to raise capex to meet pent-up AI, industrial and automotive demand, and it is a major beneficiary of the Taiwan trade deal and US fab expansion.

Harsh Kumar Analyst, Piper Sandler 2:06

AI complex demand remains robust.

Harsh Kumar says the entire AI complex, including Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, and Marvell, goes to TSMC for its chip needs, and demand indicators such as NVIDIA's sold-out 2026 capacity and Broadcom's AI growth outlook show broad AI semiconductor demand remains robust.

Harsh Kumar Analyst, Piper Sandler 2:17

NVIDIA sold out through 2027.

NVIDIA has sold out its 2026 capacity and is already taking orders for 2027, which Harsh Kumar cites as evidence of robust AI semiconductor demand and strong revenue visibility for the AI complex.

Harsh Kumar Analyst, Piper Sandler 2:21

Broadcom AI growth remains very strong.

Broadcom expects its AI business to grow 150% in 2026 and another 60% in 2027, which Harsh Kumar highlights as a sign of strong and visible growth in the AI semiconductor supply chain.

Harsh Kumar Analyst, Piper Sandler 2:31

Analog semis are turning around.

Analog semiconductors are turning around and driving growth in industrial and automotive end markets. Harsh Kumar also notes that if rates come down, a pickup in home sales and remodeling/appliance purchases would add further semiconductor demand, especially on the analog side.

Doors are open for stacks of investment to flow into U.S. chip industry: Piper Sandler's Harsh Kumar

Summary

Ideas

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