Ideas
Long Brazilian real rates, asymmetric hedge.
Brazilian real rates are pricing too little for a Lula 4 continuation and the fiscal/repression scenario; long-dated and especially short NTN-Bs offer an asymmetric payoff, with gains if an orthodox government lowers real equilibrium rates and protection if financial repression pushes inflation higher and real rates lower.
CDI is risky under financial repression.
CDI is not a risk-free asset in a heavily indebted Brazil that may resort to financial repression; investors should avoid treating 100% CDI or cash as safe because it can lag inflation and real assets if the government debases the currency or forces real rates down.
Diversify into international real assets.
The Brazil scenario is binary and a Lula 4 continuation could lead to financial repression and debasement; investors should hold a meaningful part of wealth in real assets outside Brazil that are not subject to Brazilian policy risk.
Tactically short Brazilian equities.
Brazilian equity risk premium is relatively low, so Carlos is tactically slightly short Brazilian equities while long BRL in the short term to capture carry, double carry and a modest current-account improvement.
Long BRL on carry and flows.
In the short term Carlos is long BRL because Brazil offers high carry and double carry, the current account has improved, and export prices are somewhat better, though this is described as a tactical trade.
Net long Brazil via real rates.
Bruno remains net long Brazil via fixed income, using a mix of short-dated real rates and low inflation breakevens; he gains if orthodoxy lowers real rates and also if a Lula 4 financial-repression scenario lifts inflation, and he wants to buy more if markets price a re-election stress.
Long Brazilian nominal rates on level.
Carlos has a long bias in Brazilian nominal rates because the absolute level is grotesque and embeds too much stress; it is very hard to be short rates at these levels even if the timing is uncertain.
Short Petrobras CDS on oil risk.
Bruno took a small short Petrobras CDS position as a cheap hedge; he does not expect near-term default but sees potential balance-sheet deterioration and has a bearish oil scenario, making Petrobras credit vulnerable.
Short oil on surplus supply.
Oil has a huge supply gap and the most surplus prospective balance in memory; absent geopolitical shocks, Bruno sees a shadow price below $50, so they carry a short oil position, often via options to manage volatility and technical risk.
Cheap cupom cambial curve hedge.
The cupom cambial curve is very flat and low because of BCB intervention; a cheap long-curvature or inclination position would hedge a Brazil stress scenario where reserve losses force a repricing of onshore versus offshore dollar rates, with limited maximum loss.
Long global equities, reduced position.
The global economy is growing near potential with benign disinflation, central banks are cutting or recalibrating, and historically mid-cycle adjustments are bullish risk assets; Bruno remains long global equities though he reduced exposure after the rally.
Long US tech and AI.
The private sector is massively investing in artificial intelligence, which should lift productivity and create opportunities across US technology micro-sectors; Bruno keeps exposure to US tech and AI as a core long theme.
Long emerging-market equities theme.
Bruno keeps exposure to emerging-market equities as a diversified special-situations theme, including China, Argentina and Chile, because the global backdrop is benign for emerging markets and opportunities remain attractive.
Long Eurozone front-end rates.
Bruno is applied in rates at the front of the curve, especially in the Eurozone, where there is little risk of hikes and room for cuts; this position also defends the equity portfolio.
Brazil special situation if policy changes.
Brazil could become a major special situation for global investors if there is a policy change, given its deep, liquid emerging market; foreign players are watching and a change could be more important than Argentina, but this remains conditional and not yet a position.
Long short-end global rates, steepeners.
Global labor markets are weak and governments or central banks want to stabilize or reverse the deterioration, so Carlos keeps small long positions in very short-end rates of countries with weak labor markets and prefers curve steepeners because the market is not pricing much term premium.
Long gold, enjoy the ride.
Gold is in a self-reinforcing portfolio-relocation environment driven by central-bank buying, fiscal and geopolitical risk, and a smaller market; although the price is expensive versus production cost and industrial and jewelry demand has fallen, Bruno prefers to stay long spot and gold equities and enjoy the ride.
Long Aura Minerals for gold.
Bruno continues to hold selected gold companies, including Aura Minerals, where a Kapitalo partner is a board member and the team understands the company well.
Merger-arbitrage fund NW3 attractive.
The merger-arbitrage environment should improve as regulation opens the door to more M&A and new issuance after years of regulatory interference; Kapitalo's NW3 fund has an experienced manager and a strong track record, making it an attractive product for at least two to three years.
This Market Makers video, published January 15, 2026,
features Carlos Woelz, Bruno Cordeiro
discussing NTN-B, CDI, Ativos reais internacionais, BOVA11.SA, BRL, Inflação implícita Brasil, Tesouro IPCA+, DI Brasil, CDS Petrobras, BNO, Curvatura de cupom cambial, ACWI, XLK, EEM, Juros zona do euro, Juros curtos globais, Curva de juros global - inclinação, GLD, ORA.TO, NW3.
19 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Carlos Woelz,
Bruno Cordeiro
· Tickers:
NTN-B,
CDI,
Ativos reais internacionais,
BOVA11.SA,
BRL,
Inflação implícita Brasil,
Tesouro IPCA+,
DI Brasil,
CDS Petrobras,
BNO,
Curvatura de cupom cambial,
ACWI,
XLK,
EEM,
Juros zona do euro,
Juros curtos globais,
Curva de juros global - inclinação,
GLD,
ORA.TO,
NW3
